Inside: How to Read Trump on Hormuz / 5 Promising Nasdaq-100 buys / Our new algo restores faith in our ETF 10-day forecasts.
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The stack of Hormuz so-called deals is getting thick with the one between Oman and Iran seemingly close to signing while the U.S. is still reluctant to offer anything specific in terms of concessions. This is going nowhere fast.
But suits remain blind to this. Just as they’re blind to -23k jobs vs. the expected +80k. They’re all about the silicon pipe dream:
Peace → Cheap oil → Low inflation → Fed sleeps → Tech stocks go up.
You can see it in the S&P 500 reaching a new record (+3.58% this week). We’ll see if anyone wakes up Wednesday when CPI hits (forecast at 3.4% / 2.5% core).
And as for peace… Hormuz traffic is low/dropping and Iraqi crude discounts aren’t changing much. So what’s up with that?
Iran, Oman, and the U.S. can’t decide on how high the toll should be (~6%, 3%, 0%, respectively), and Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority is now sanctioned, which makes paying them for passage harder (if not impossible), and the insurers can wash their hands if anyone does it.
The shipowners can either:
pay Iran and deal with sanctions/insurance.
not pay and not be let through.
This is the key to my scoop for today.
Jones Act has been suspended for almost 5 months already, so domestic U.S. cargo can still travel without complete reliance on the U.S. It makes the oil cheap-ish.
Trump is supposed to extend that suspension, but U.S. gas is still over $4 a gallon.
So now we watch for this combo from Trump:
A deal is close, so don’t worry about energy
Keep Jones Act suspended
In the section below, I tell my Members what to do if that happens.
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