📅 Date: 02.08.2026
Okay, this week actually gave me whiplash, and I don’t say that lightly after everything we’ve been through the past two months.
Wednesday was rough. The Fed held rates, which everyone expected, but whatever Warsh said in that press conference didn’t land well, the Dow gave back somewhere around 1,100 points that session. Coming right on the heels of last week’s Alphabet and Tesla mess, it felt like the market was bracing for Microsoft and Meta to be the next dominoes to fall a few hours later.
They weren’t. Not even close. Microsoft posted an absolutely stunning quarter, Azure growth blew past expectations, and the stock jumped 16% Thursday, briefly pushing the company’s market cap toward $4 trillion, a level only Nvidia has ever touched. Meta beat too and jumped double digits on the back of AI-driven ad growth actually showing up in the numbers this time, not just in the spending line. The relief was so strong it dragged the whole tape with it, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.8% Thursday and snapped a six-day losing streak in a single session. JPMorgan’s desk noted that a lot of the hedge-fund selling in chip and memory names over the prior weeks had likely run its course, which probably explains part of why the bounce had so much force behind it.
Friday kept the good mood going, mostly. Amazon reported strong AWS numbers and jumped on the news. Apple’s report was softer and the stock dipped early before the broader tape carried it along anyway. By the closing bell the Nasdaq had added another 1%, the S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, and the Dow wrapped up its fourth straight winning month.
Here’s the part that actually worries me more than anything from earlier in the week, though. Buried under all the Big Tech euphoria, the 30-year Treasury yield spiked to its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year topped 4.7%, a level we haven’t seen since January 2025. That happened because June’s PCE print, the Fed’s own preferred inflation gauge, came in hot, and bond investors are apparently starting to question whether Warsh actually has the conviction to keep inflation contained. Stocks partied through it Thursday and Friday, but that’s the kind of signal that tends to matter more than it gets credit for in the moment.
So: a scary Wednesday, a euphoric Thursday and Friday, and a bond market quietly sounding an alarm nobody wants to talk about yet. That was the week.
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The jobs report lands, always a big one, and it’ll be read through the lens of whether it supports or undercuts the bond market’s inflation worries from Friday. If it comes in hot, that yield spike could get worse fast. If it’s soft, it might actually ease some of the pressure.
I’m also watching whether Thursday’s rally has legs into next week or fades back toward Wednesday’s lows. A one-day 2.8% pop is exciting, but the market has fooled us with relief rallies before this year that didn’t stick. If the strength holds for a few more sessions, I’d expect Module 2 to get a much cleaner look at a re-entry.
For the system, it’s the same answer it always is. If the bond market stress spills over and Module 1’s stop breaks, you get the alert the same evening, before the next open. If the rally holds and momentum builds cleanly, Module 2 or 3 could finally get their shot again after weeks on the sidelines.
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Have a good weekend.
Best,
Felix
Founder of The NASDAQ Playbook
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to engage in any investment strategy. Any views expressed reflect the author's personal opinions and research at the time of writing and may change without notice. All backtested performance data is simulated and does not represent actual trading results — past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ are complex instruments that carry significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. The author may personally hold positions in one or more of the securities mentioned in this publication. This should be considered a potential conflict of interest. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Before acting on any information in this publication, you should conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional, tax advisor, or legal advisor.
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