Readers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.
Once a month, I step back from weekly trades to assess the bigger picture: where momentum is strengthening, where it’s fading, and what that means for the weeks ahead.
This is my Momentum Deep Dive, powered by my proprietary Momentum Pulse Check tool. I use it to monitor trends and market regimes across key segments, sectors, and individual stocks.
Paid subscribers have full access to my app and can run any top US stock or ETF through it directly.
This month’s deep dive covers two things: the broader momentum landscape across key market segments, and an update on my Macro ETF Portfolio:
Momentum Snapshot
Equities: Strong uptrend across the board, although momentum is slowing down for Nasdaq.
Commodities: Oil in uptrend but volatile. Precious metals back in uptrend.
Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum attempting a bounce but requiring more confirmation
Treasuries: in downtrend.
US Dollar: sideways.
Macro ETF Portfolio
99% invested across 15 positions. Last month: 2 new positions.
Cumulative return: +46% since October 2023
Top performers: Semiconductors ETF ($SMH, +117%) and Emerging Markets ETF ($EEM, +48%).
📌 My Take:
August has been very active across market segments. The month started with equities breaking out to new highs following the frustrating June-July consolidation. While they took a breather in the second half of August to digest that rally, Metals and Bitcoin have taken the mantle, attempting a dramatic trend reversal after months stuck in downtrends.
This is a move I have been waiting for for some time, and I have started increasing my exposure to that space. I will likely continue doing so in the coming weeks, assuming this latest move doesn’t turn into another failed breakout attempt.
This deep dive is based on a simple, consistent framework. I use weekly charts and exponential moving averages to assess both the strength and quality of trends. From there, I overlay an analysis of key price levels to identify potential areas of support, resistance, or friction ahead.
This combination gives me a holistic view of each segment: not just where price has been, but how healthy the trend is and where it may face pressure.
This framework is designed to do one thing well: separate clean, tradable momentum from noise.
It doesn’t predict markets or aim to catch exact tops or bottoms. Instead, it helps identify where trends are working, where they’re weakening, and where caution is warranted.
Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable
Key Levels
Support: $758
Resistance: $780
📌 My Rating: HOLD
SPY broke out of its frustrating June-July consolidation to reach new record highs. While momentum has slowed somewhat in the second half of August, the overall trend and price action remain largely healthy. For me, this remains a clear HOLD.
Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable
Key Levels
Support: $685
Resistance: $750
📌 My Rating: HOLD
The Tech-heavy QQQ also bounced to start August, but the move has been less powerful and failed to push the index to new all-time highs. While the broader trend remains strong, there is no denying that momentum has slowed, with recent price action clearly lagging SPY.
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Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable
Key Levels
Support: $290
Resistance: $305
📌 My Rating: HOLD
Somewhat similar to SPY, with a strong breakout to new highs following the June-July consolidation. Price action has since turned sideways again, but my still think this is likely another healthy consolidation setting up the next leg higher.
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