Mythic Atlas Report — Issue 03

Both engines are invested this week. Nothing flipped. Same stages, same allocations, same geography pick.

That’s the boring version. Here’s the one worth your time.

The Growth Engine sits at Stage 4 Constructive: 4 of 7 gauges positive. But look at which three are negative: Consumer 33%, Liquidity 0%, Housing 0%. Real incomes, sentiment, the monetary base, building permits. Every one of them sits on the same side of the economy. The weakness isn’t scattered. It’s concentrated in domestic demand.

And the panel isn’t what’s holding the position anyway. At 4 of 7, the model could lose a category and still hold Stage 4. The pivotal lever is the S&P’s ten-month line a close below it cuts the allocation two stages at once, 100% straight to 33%, whatever the panel says. It’s exactly what moved the model in March.

So with domestic demand red, price is doing the load-bearing work.

The second thing: Geography is 100% in international ex-US equity, and that is not a bet against America. The U.S. leading indicator reads 101.0 and is rising, ahead of the ten-country average. The tilt is a price-momentum call, by a margin of about six points. Every falling economy in the ten-country panel is European: Germany, France, the UK, Italy. The drag is one continent.

Third, the quiet number. The Economic Momentum Index reads 1.59 against a 15-year average of 2.98. Positive, so the regime is Expansion, running about 46% below normal. A real expansion, just a cooler and later one than the label suggests.

The backdrop still rewards being invested. It doesn’t reward chasing.

The full report is attached: both engines’ readings, the attribution breakdown, forward base rates from a Stage 4 state, the fifteen underlying indicators, the 50/50 blend, and the complete trade log.

The one live wire this week: Tuesday’s Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey (8:30 am ET). It’s the only Atlas indicator with fresh data, feeding the services proxy that’s the lone negative inside an otherwise positive Business block. Also worth watching: the ECB Thursday, given where the diffusion weakness sits, and flash PMIs Friday. Fed blackout runs into the July 29 FOMC.

Everything else is in the report.

Impersonal market commentary, not personalized investment advice. Model results reflect historical simulation; past performance does not guarantee future results.