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UPDATE 8/1: Things are finally up and running and should be much easier to maintain from here on out so updates should be semi-regular throughout the coming year. Feel free to comment on this post during that time. We ll call these the initial predictions and compare as time goes on. As a recap, by this [ ]
Hugo finalists were announced yesterday, which is always a party. As usual, I ll go through my annual predictions and how they stacked up, and include some statistics that I found interesting about the finalists this year. I ll also begin working on my prediction model for 2027 and probably have that posted in the next week [ ]
This is intended to be a qualitative companion/counterweight to my quantitative predictions. The prediction model does its job, but Hugo nominations are also shaped by momentum, fatigue, and voter psychology in ways numbers miss. This post is about those pressure points. They re just general musings, not meant to imply merit judgment, so no need to [ ]
The nomination stats for the 2025 Hugo Awards have been posted by the Seattle Worldcon Hugo team after an excruciating several months wait since the winners were announced (you re telling me it was only two weeks?). And for the second year in a row, they are not fake! I won t lie, this is just as [ ]
Predictions for 2027 are here! 4/22: Finalists announced! Analysis here. 3/18: FINAL PREDICTIONS BELOW! Voting closes 3/28. With the announcement of the Nebulas, everything I track has been accounted for. More discussion below. I wrote a new post the goes into much greater depth surrounding the Best Novel race now that voting is open. It s [ ]
Finalists for the 2025 Hugo Awards have been announced! The title includes surprises , although there weren t many; it just seemed like the kind of title one should post after an awards announcement. Overall my prediction model correctly predicted 9/12 finalists, which is pretty consistent with years past, and better than last year! And all of [ ]
Finalists announced! https://seattlein2025.org/wsfs/hugo-awards/2025-hugo-award-finalists/ New reaction post here! https://mrphilipslibrary.wordpress.com/2025/04/07/2025-hugo-finalists-snubs-surprises-and-stats/ EDIT 3/24: I hate to edit the FINAL prediction post, but the Crawford Awards were announced on 3/23/25 (after Hugo voting closed) and I feel like I have to factor them in because I have in…
The 2024 Hugo Awards ceremony took place yesterday, August 11th, and the list of winners is now available on the Glasgow Worldcon site. Even more exciting (for me) was the release of the voting statistics right after the ceremony. Traditionally, these stats are released hours or even days later, but this time, the Glasgow team [ ]
2026 predictions are live! UPDATED 4/7/25: Finalists have been announced! Reaction post here: https://mrphilipslibrary.wordpress.com/2025/04/07/2025-hugo-finalists-snubs-surprises-and-stats/ 2026 prediction post will go up in the next week or so. David F. Watson has set up prediction markets on Manifold for novel and novella that anyone is free to participate in and make their bets (with play…
Finalists for the 2024 Hugo Awards have been announced! Congratulations to all the finalists. A few surprises, but not many. Here s how my prediction model stacked up against the actual finalists (correct predictions bolded). Novel finalists: Novel predictions: Novella finalists: Novella predictions: Initial thoughts I feel good that I was able to predict 5/6 of [ ]