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Whether you gamble on fights or play in my weekly UFC Pick ‘Em, it helps to know what information is worth considering and which is worth discarding when determining who will win a fight.
Lucky for you, I’ve already done all this hard work for you. I’ve been crunching the numbers for over 3,000 UFC fights from 2021 to the present, keeping only the stats useful for predicting a winner and discarding the rest. Now I’m sharing it with you, my lovely reader.
I’ll update this data after every UFC event, so it'll be a living, breathing document. Below is a simple breakdown of the statistics for 2021 and onward, along with an additional file for 2026 only. I’ve included a brief legend that explains what each statistic entails.
If you have any questions or other statistics you’d like to see tracked, please comment below!
Since a significant amount of time has been invested in this work, it is available exclusively to paying subscribers. However, I offer the lowest rate possible on Substack, at just $50 per year.
Legend
Favourite = betting favourite heading into fight
Younger = fighter was younger than opponent
Five Years = fighter was five years younger or more than opponent
Striking = fighter had better career striking stats (as per UFC Stats) than opponent
Grappling = fighter had better UFC career grappling stats than opponent
Consensus = my MMA Gambling Podcast cohost and I picked the same fighter to win
Missed Weight = fighter missed weight heading into the fight
Strike Differential = fighter has a better UFC career strike differential (strikes landed minus absorbed) than opponent
Late Replacement = fighter took the fight on less than a month’s notice
Year Off = fighter was inactive more than a year before fight
Stats = fighter led in more of the above stat categories than opponent
Men’s Fav = betting favourite heading into fight
Women’s Fav = same as above, but for women's fights
UPDATED AFTER UFC Vegas 120
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