Comments on the tech industry, with a focus on mobile, wireless, & the web
–How can a company choose the best AI-enabled features to build? –How does generative AI change the rules of good customer experience? –How is AI changing the overall software industry, and what business opportunities (and threats) does that create? Almost everyone I know in tech is thinking about questions like these. I presented at the DeveloperWeek conference last week, and about half the 150…
A bad dialog box made me wonder today about the limits of Amazon’s business model. The dialog box was on the Kindle Paperwhite, my preferred ebook reader: I’m dog-sitting this weekend at my daughter’s house, and hadn’t yet connected my Kindle to the home Wi-Fi network. The Kindle’s home screen suggests books you might want to read, and when I tapped on one of them, that was the dialog box I saw. I…
The United States is not as polarized and angry as you think it is. The shrill voices that dominate discussions online and in the press are actually a very small percent of the US population. Unfortunately, social media and the press accidentally amplify the voices of the angriest people, giving us a twisted view of society. It’s like we’re all trapped in a funhouse, staring at the mirrors 24/7,…
In a previous post, I wrote about the big tech companies’ tin ear for public relations, and how that’s feeding mistrust of the whole industry ( link ). More than a year later, we’ve made little progress on public mistrust, and that’s feeding a legal and regulatory attack on the industry. Today I’ll talk about that attack, and why it should worry all of us, not just people who work in tech. If you…
The next few years are going to be extremely uncomfortable, and maybe disastrous, for the tech industry. Political opposition to the big tech companies is coming to a head, and the industry lacks allies who could protect it. On the contrary, one of the few areas where many politicians on the left and right agree is that they want to see the tech industry punished (even if they're not completely…
After two and a half nonstop hours of watching VR "cinema" this weekend, I reached two conclusions: --My head hurt, and --This stuff is not yet ready for prime time The setting was Cinequest, Silicon Valley's quirky independent film festival. This year it added a VR "experience," with eight half-hour VR programs you could watch, at ten bucks a pop. I chose five of them. They were a diverse…
There's already been a lot written about Amazon's offer to buy Whole Foods, and what it means for the retail industry. The LA Times says it's all about home delivery of groceries ( link ) and the NY Times focused on efficiency ( link ). Ben Thompson wrote an excellent analysis pointing out the logistical advantages for Amazon of buying a food distribution network along with the stores that give it…
Summary. In the tech industry we worship “disruption,” but to most people it’s a dirty word. In a world where insecurity and mistrust in institutions are on the rise, tech is increasingly out of step with the values of the public. This puts our companies at risk of hostile regulation and customer backlashes. We need to change our attitude and our behavior, or our industry may be seriously damaged…
Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election because of two issues: Deep concerns about the fairness of American government, and an intense desire for change. That's a different story that we've heard from many commentators ( link ), but I'm confident in my opinion because I heard it directly from Trump voters. Below I'll share their voices with you, and tell you how I found them. This post…
People have been asking my opinion of the new Amazon Fire Phone, but I’ve had a lot of trouble answering. My first reaction was overwhelmingly blah. I’ll be curious to try it, and maybe then I’ll feel better about it. But right now it seems to me like a bag of interesting features rather than a coherent product. (Quick, what do faux 3D imaging and a year of free mail order shipping have in common?…
Well, that was disappointing. Microsoft’s heavily-rumored mini-tablet ( link ) was a no-show at the Surface event this week. If this had been an Apple announcement, I’d just say the Internet got carried away with itself. But the source of the rumors was the very reliable Mary Jo Foley at ZDNet ( link ), who’s almost a house organ for Microsoft official leaks. So what happened? It’s possible that…
The reports leaking out of Redmond are intriguing. Tomorrow (May 20, 2014) Microsoft will reportedly announce a “Surface Mini” tablet, a touchscreen device in the same size class as an iPad Mini but equipped with a stylus and note-taking software ( link ). Most of the press reports have focused on the chip vendor ( link ) and comparisons to the iPad Mini, but what most of them seem to miss is that…
I was at a developer conference earlier this year, and the discussion came around to a certain very popular pattern-matching game. I was surprised by how much hostility I heard. “That thing,” one developer fumed, “is just a slot machine.” At the time I chalked it up as jealousy. Sure, many mobile games have random elements, but the best ones also require a lot of thought. That’s nothing like a…
Considering how big and successful Facebook is, it gets surprisingly little respect in Silicon Valley. Although everyone acknowledges the company’s size, it’s usually viewed either with hostility (among the small but intensely vocal group that cares deeply about privacy) or mild indifference (by everyone else). It’s not usually seen as a leader capable of changing markets, let alone driving the…
Confidential documents obtained from Apple indicate that, despite all the rumors, the company’s first entry into wearable computing will not be a watch. Instead, Apple plans a line of intelligent body piercings, collectively known as iPierce. The first iPierce devices will be an eyebrow ring and a navel barbell (which Apple calls a stud). Both include a microphone, speaker, Bluetooth LE, WiFi,…
In yesterday’s post on the Oculus acquisition ( link ), I focused on the idea that Facebook sees virtual reality as the future of social networking. I was skeptical of the Oculus deal because I see VR as a more fundamental change with much broader implications to the industry. There is an alternate view, as a commenter on the post pointed out. Let’s assume for a minute that Mark Zuckerberg…
When a big company is still controlled by its founders, its greatest strength is that it has the resources and the freedom to do almost anything, regardless of the shortsighted fears of investors. That’s also its greatest weakness. Case in point, Facebook. I can rationalize reasons why Oculus VR is a good fit for Facebook, but I think the official explanation for the deal is pretty thin. To me, it…
I’ve spent many hours trying to puzzle out Google’s product plans. What’s the logic behind Google Drive, how does Motorola fit in a software company, and on and on ( link ). But with the acquisition of Nest, I think I’m going to stop looking for a single product strategy. I believe Google’s mission statement to “organize the world’s information” is no longer a meaningful guide to its actions. To…
I want to believe. The forecasts for wearable computing are remarkable. The headline in Wired declared, “Wearable Tech Will Be as Big as the Smartphone,” but the article went even further: “We’re...seeing an explosion of these devices on the market.... A new device revolution is at hand...wearable devices are poised to push smartphones aside.” ( link ) So wearables aren’t just a new market,…
The rumors floating out of Microsoft these days are remarkable: —Microsoft’s Nokia business is working on an Android phone, and Microsoft might let them sell it ( link ). —Contrary to its entire business history, Microsoft may give away Windows phone and Windows RT for free ( link ) —The Start menu will be restored in at least some versions of Windows 8.1, and it will be possible to run Metro apps…
Ten years ago, everybody in the tech industry — and I mean everybody — was convinced that the best way to dominate a technology market was to create an operating system and license it to a bunch of other companies. “The key to success is creating a standard,” said the experts. “If you write software for only your own hardware, you’ll never achieve the economies of scale of a licensed OS, and…
“What does Google want?” A favorite pastime among people who watch the tech industry is trying to figure out why Google does things. The Verge was downright plaintive about it the other day ( link ), and I get the question frequently from financial analysts and reporters. But the topic also comes up regularly in conversations with my Silicon Valley friends. It’s a puzzle because Google doesn’t…
Although we’ve all been talking about mobile computing for years, the smartphone and tablet markets are still very young, and changing rapidly. Many app and web companies are struggling to figure out how mobile works and what makes it different from the more familiar world of websites and personal computers. The depth of the confusion became clear to me recently when, as part of a research…
I wanted to let you know that my book on business strategy, Map the Future , is now available. Map the Future is a how-to book for business strategy. It teaches you how to combine information about competitors, customers, and technology trends to spot future opportunities and problems before they're obvious. That lets you grab opportunities before anyone else, and get ready for your competitors'…
“In chaos, there is opportunity.” —Tony Curtis, Operation Petticoat (and also Sun Tzu) “Chaos” is a pretty good word to describe the personal computer market in 2013. Microsoft is trying to tweak Windows 8 to make it acceptable to PC users ( link ), its Surface computers continue to crawl off the shelf ( link ), PC licensees are reconsidering their OS plans and business models ( link ), and…