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MKTCONTEXT · Aug 9, 2026

🍔Restaurant Stocks Breaking Out (+2 Stock Picks)

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MKTCONTEXT · MKTCONTEXT

Welcome back to MktContext where we study the US economy and time the stock market.

Current stock market timer: BULLISH

The restaurant trades we recommended just a few weeks ago are breaking out, confirming our consumer spending thesis. Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) broke out of consolidation on strong earnings. It is up nearly +40% from our entry point.

BLMN earnings gap
BLMN earnings gap

Our second restaurant-related pick, Toast (TOST), also reported good earnings and rose 20% from our $30 breakout level:

TOST breakout
TOST breakout

The leader of the pack, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), also reported good earnings and pushed to new highs:

CAKE daily chart
CAKE daily chart

From the earnings reports, it is evident that restaurant foot traffic and consumer spending is returning in a major way. We were able to catch the inflection before it happened.

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  • Market rebound and lock-out rally

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  • Our portfolio — trades initiated this week

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