The machiavellian pundit

There's a certain type of intellectual, a self-perceived machiavellian who is not so naive is as the rest of us. Where we see a wicked despot acting erratically, they see through the veil and find the hidden motives that elude us ordinary folk.

Where the mainstream intellectual would use tools such as economics and game-theory to analyse geopolitics, the machiavellian pundit recognizes the futility of this approach. The world is not so simple. To understand the dynamics we must resort to psychology. Not the uncool kind which does experiments with p-values, but the real shit which where Nietsche and Jung explain the collective unconscious and its historical implications for 19th century Prussia of which the machiavellian claims leaders long for to this day.

Not a single prediction they have ever made turned out to be wrong. In Fact, their predictions are so powerful that there was no perceivable outcome where they could have turned out to be wrong. With the war in Ukraine it's important for us to remember not take take advice from fraudulent pundits, no matter how contrarian and wise they seem.