Emergency Press Conference: FRMI & GRPN

Groupon reported August 7: revenue $124.7 million, EBITDA $14.8 million with severance still inside it, organic revenue back to growth and accelerating to double-digit in July. The stock popped nine percent to $27 and change and gave all of it back (+ some) inside two sessions. Monday morning Goldman’s Eric Sheridan, the biggest bear on the name, the street’s only Sell and its lowest target, raised that target 69 percent, $13 to $22; the stock fell 8.3 percent anyway, on 2.8 million shares against a 41 million share count, no news attached. The tape read like a short attack, or one holder blowing out of a million-share position. It closed $22.95…

Management’s July claim shows up in the traffic: 45.6 million visits, the biggest month on the chart, above the December holiday peak. A deals business printing its record traffic month in the middle of summer. One fund that pays for a finer cut of the data tells me the first week of August is running about 300 basis points ahead of July. Three months of sequential acceleration, and the stock is priced below the day before anyone knew.

I’m max long.

Groupon monthly web visits through July 2026. July, at 45.6 million, tops the holiday season. Source: Bloomberg.

On May 14, Fermi’s management promised a binding tenant within ninety days. The deadline was August 13. The lease crossed the wire August 10 after the close, day 88.

The deal: a turnkey data center at Project Matador supported by 222 megawatts of total facility power, leased to TensorWave, an AMD-backed GPU cloud, for approximately $6.5 billion over an initial fifteen-year term, with expansion rights past 650 MW. FRMI had closed at $5.88, down 4.9 percent with the whole complex red. It printed $7.97 to $8.16 after hours and settled near $7. An hour later Riot announced a $9.1 billion lease of its own and rose 25 percent. I added after hours.

The June piece went out at $9.45: the market was pricing a governance mess as an asset problem, and a self-imposed August clock would force an answer. The next six weeks were ugly. The convert launch knocked the stock down 16 percent in a day, Mizuho went from $27 to $11, and Monday’s close sat 38 percent under the writeup, a dollar above the floor I published. The clock still worked.

• Parties: Fermi Campus 1 LLC and TensorWave TEX1, LLC, both project subsidiaries.

• Structure: turnkey. Fermi develops, constructs, delivers; tenant occupies in phases.
  Capacity: 222 MW of total facility power, phase one.

• Revenue: ~$6.5B over the initial term; desk carries 3% annual escalators, putting year one near $1.55M/MW against the $1.95M blend.

• Term: 15 years from commencement of the final delivery phase, plus two 5-year renewals.

• Delivery: phased, beginning second half of 2027.

• Expansion: two additional data centers, 650+ MW across three phases.

• Conditions: “customary conditions, including the receipt of requisite project guaranties and financing.”

The fifteen-year clock starts at the final delivery phase, so the revenue years run past fifteen from today. The lease also clears the two year-end covenants that mattered: Texas Tech’s 200 MW requirement (December 30), which gates both the ground lease and the notice to proceed on vertical construction, and Keystone’s approved-customer-agreement condition (December 31). The 8-K with exhibits had not reached EDGAR Monday night; the rent schedule, escalators, termination rights, and deposits live there.

The first lease lands mid-table among the largest AI leases signed, before any expansion. Source: Bloomberg; company releases.

“Guarantee: Fermi expects certain of the obligations under the lease to be guaranteed by one of the global leaders in AI.”