Long Live The Bernadotte Connection

In the early 1800s, the Swedish king Karl XIII lacked a legitimate heir and was therefore on the lookout for a suitable substitute. The Swedes managed to convince a certain French marshal, named Jean Babtiste Bernadotte, to apply for the job. Fast forward some 200 years and Carl XVI Gustaf of House Bernadotte is currently the reigning king of Sweden.

And not only does Sweden have a royal house of French origin, but soon also French frigates. After months of sweat and tears at Naval Group, a French shipmaker, the Swedish government announced yesterday that it had chosen the FDI as its future frigate. It’s a big deal. The four frigates will cost Sweden around SEK 40 billion (€3,67 bn), depending on what type of weapons Sweden wants to have installed on the frigates - Naval Group has promised to incorporate Saab systems of Sweden’s choosing. But apart from the cost, it’s a big deal for Sweden’s air defence: according to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the new frigates will triple Sweden’s AD capability. Delivery is expected at a one-ship-per-year pace from 2030. The fact that the FDI already exisist and is deployed by the French and Hellenic navies was a strong selling point vis-a-vis competitors, who could only offer a plan.

I got to visit on board the FDI in Brest last fall and it did seem to have a lot of “pang pang” potential, as the Swedes would say, despite being a promisingly compact vessel (which is fairly relevant given the extensive archipelago in Sweden and between Sweden and Finland). Otherwise, apart from that it looked like a neat boat to me, I can’t say much - for all the nerdy details, please read Corporal Frisk’s five-part review.

Personally, I am happy about the outcome of Sweden’s procurement process, as this cements the strategic partnership between France and Sweden. France’s GlobalEye deal with Saab is likely also sealed now. Given that France and Sweden are the only two European countries that have their national fighter jet programmes (Rafale and Gripen) who knows what the future of this Bernadotte connection holds? Sweden is also one of the eight countries that has begun consultations with France on how the French nuclear deterrent could play a greater role in European security.

The Nordics have been quite good at binding larger European countries into the region’s defence arrangements through procurement cooperation, such as Norway’s submarine, space and missile projects with Germany and frigate procurement with the UK, in the framework of aUK-Norway strategic partnership. In Finland, both the UK and France contribute to the NATO Forward Land Force. Denmark is also planning to procure frigates, but the final decision has been delayed by difficulties in building a new government after elections in March. Naval Group is among the contenders in Denmark, too.

France’s interest in Northern Europe is fairly recent and the French are only beginning to get a foothold in Nordic hearts and minds. For a long time, France was mostly viewed with suspicion, given its reputation as a difficult NATO ally and a feeling that when France talks about European strategic autonomy, it actually just wants to sell French weapons. The latter stereotype is only partially true: the French defence industry is under a particularly heavy export pressure, but that is because maintaining a sovereign nuclear deterrent is expensive and requires wide-ranging national production capacity.

The best way to advocate for France in Northern Europe has until now been to point out that beggars can’t be choosers and we should welcome any and every interest in our region’s security. But the new French commitments to Northern European security, including its forward-leaning support to Denmark and Greenland, will hopefully be the beginning of more “strategic intimacy” with the Nordics, as President Macron likes to say. As things stand, France may have a bright future as a strategic partner to Northern European countries, spearheaded by the Sweden-France partnership - if it sticks to its commitments beyond the presidential elections looming on the horizon next year.