Airpower alone never stood a chance in shutting down Iran's nuclear program.

I believe Iran is run by an evil regime that has committed many acts against the United States that justify attacking it. Further, I believe an Iran with nuclear weapons is really bad news for the United States, Europe, Israel, and most of the world. But I never have and still do not believe that airpower ever had a chance to stop Iran’s nuclear program, and I fear that this war actually only further convinced the Khomeinists of the urgent need for a bomb. After all, along with providing a nuclear umbrella under which to conduct its terrorist activities, having nuclear weapons would have precluded the U.S and Israel from launching their February 28 attacks.

No one can be sure of all the factors that went into President Trump believing that airpower alone could stop Iran’s nuclear program or even force Iran into surrender. Perhaps the fact that the U.S. Air Force has consistently overestimated what can be accomplished by airpower alone, and that one of President Trump’s most important military advisors is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Dan Caine. Not to say the U.S. airpower is not very powerful, but that achieving real lasting change requires ground power, with airpower supporting the ground forces.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your perspective, a ground invasion capable of defeating Iran in the manner U.S.-led coalition forces were able to defeat Iraq is not possible for the foreseeable future. First, in both relative and absolute terms, the U.S. military is not as powerful as it was in either the 1991 Gulf War or the 2003 Iraq War. Second, President Trump currently does not have the International support to put together a coalition beyond the United States and Israel. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, even if he wanted to, President Trump does not have the domestic support to even attempt an all-out ground invasion.

It seems likely that President Trump understood that a ground invasion was not possible and thus opted for a massive air campaign. Did he really believe such a campaign could actually destroy the nuclear program of such a large country with many deeply buried facilities, far beyond the ability of even our 30,000 lb. bunker busters to destroy? Did the President believe that airpower could destroy the 900 or so pounds of enriched uranium distributed throughout Iran’s 636,000 square miles, full of mountains and caves, and 90,000 million civilians? I hope not.

Real Regime Change Was the Real Hope

Instead, I believe the hope was that the decapitation strikes and the severe degradation of Iran’s military would lead to a massive loss of face (perceived loss of Allah’s favor) and power, leading to real regime change. By real regime change, I mean getting rid of the Khomeinists, not merely killing the top leaders, and having equally fanatical Khomeinists take over. So far, that has not happened.

Iran’s Military Capabilities Heavily Damaged, but Still Potent

Despite its conventional Navy and Air Force being destroyed, Iran’s huge starting inventory of missiles and drones has only been partially depleted and partially destroyed, but likely remains large enough to maintain attacks on Israel, U.S. military bases, and its Gulf neighbor for months. Likewise, Iran’s unconventional, highly distributed forces are still powerful enough to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

All this adds up to the Khomeinists being nowhere near ready to surrender, and I don’t expect them to agree to give up their nuclear program. At best, they might agree to some curtailment, with no way to verify that curtailment, but as of now, I don’t even seem that happening.

President Trump needs to get the United States out of this war ASAP!

Given that continuing our air campaign will not induce Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions, and it does not seem close to achieving near-term regime change. And given that the war is destroying Republican chances, however small, of continuing to hold the House, and could actually result in Republicans losing the U.S. Senate, it behooves President Trump to get some kind of peace agreement in place, even if it comes nowhere near to achieving his lofty March 6 aspirations.

Continuing the War Will Be a Disaster for Republicans and President Trump

Regardless of how noble the goal, and regardless of the massive number of positive things the Trump admin has done domestically, many of those who voted for him can only see the war, and their perception is that President Trump and the party he leads are not focusing on their needs. And that perception will be a disaster in the upcoming midterms.