I don’t have an addictive personality, which is luckier than hitting a 12-team football parlay.
When I make sports bets — which I do, and legally — they are the definition of small potatoes. It’s for fun, and nothing more. I’m way more scared of losing money than I am excited about the prospect of winning. That’s not some great touting of my thought process. It is, as I said, lucky. Quite lucky.
Not everyone is so fortunate, and I’m not sure how sports-betting junkies can avoid crashing and burning in 2026. It was enough that legalized online sports betting had become a staple in most of America, not all that long after the only place you could make legal sports wagers was Nevada.
New York state has filed a lawsuit against prediction platform Kalshi, alleging the company ran an illegal gambling operation by targeting users between the ages of 18 and 20 — an age group too young for legal mobile sports betting in the state.
These things called predictive markets are new and addictive. Polymarket is the largest. Kalshi has quite a foothold in the sports world.
New York has sued prediction market Kalshi, calling it an “illegal gambling operation” in the state.
The state’s attorney general, Letitia James, alleges the prediction market exposed New Yorkers, including those under 21, to gambling addiction without adequate safeguards.
About 40 states are cool with it as it is, including Iowa. New York? Not so much. It alleges the company has targeted users between 18 and 20, people who can’t even legally use mobile sports betting sites in the state.
You can see how that might perceived as a problem. Perhaps a horrendous one.
At last month’s annual meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures in Chicago, Iowa State Sen. Dan Dawson told the audience that a group of students at his son’s high school used Kalshi to bet on World Cup matches. Iowa’s legal age for online sports betting is 21.
Kalshi quickly became mainstream, sports fans. It had advertisements in World Cup stadiums. It has made commercials featuring actor Timothee Chalamet.
Last month, President Trump’s teleprompter operator was alleged to have made nearly $100,000 on Kalshi. He is suspected of using his access to Trump’s prepared remarks to bet on Kalshi’s “mention markets,” where users can wager on things like what Trump will or won’t say during public events.
Among its list of words and phrases Trump might say this week, as of noon (CT) Monday, the site had “stupid question” at 41 percent yes, “windmill” at 58 percent, and “landslide” at 80 percent.
Kalshi suspended a Minnesota state senator from using its site after he bet on his own election.
The site’s sports betting isn’t traditional, with point-spreads. Some of it is betting on future results like league championships. But it’s largely what is called “moneyline” in sports books. When I wrote this Monday, the Golden State Valkyries of the WNBA were 87 percent yes to defeat the Toronto Tempo Tuesday night. Ten dollars would win you $11.10, while $10 on Toronto to win would net you $78.40.
On Monday (all of the following percentages were as of Monday), the Indiana Fever were at 11 percent to win the WNBA title. Ten bucks wagered would win you $85.57 if the Fever get past Minnesota (46 percent), Las Vegas (17 percent) and everyone else in the league.
A $10 bet on Iowa to win the 2026-27 NCAA men’s basketball championships would bring you $1,038 if the Hawkeyes pull it off. With Iowa State, it’s $1,334. Both are 1 percent or under to get that little job done.
Sports is a major part of Kalshi, but there’s so much more. You could bet on words that would be said during Tuesday’s Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Crime and Counterterrorism titled "Hearings To Examine Data And Profit, Focusing On The Consumer Cost Of AI Surveillance Pricing,"
If someone utters the term “data center,” the 48 percent who bet yes on it will cash.
Politics is huge on Kalshi. There are hundreds of wagers offered, including Senate, Congress, gubernatorial and even some mayoral elections around the U.S., and in others around the world.
Kalshi bettors have made Rob Sand a 64 percent favorite to become governor in November. A $10 bet on him would return $15.24 if he wins. Because people have bet the way they have, Ashley Hinson was at 59 percent to win a U.S. Senate seat over Josh Turek, though Turek held a lead of a few percentage points in an average of polls taken on the matter.
If you think this is really niche betting, know that over $1 million has been wagered at Kalshi on that Senate race, and the election is still three months away. In the betting for the closest Senate race in the nation, Iowa is at 13 percent. Those who use gambling jargon might call that good value given what the polls say about that race.
Kalshi offers bets on climate. Monday, the majority of the money on the highest temperature in Chicago was on 82 to 83 degrees. That’s a bet you could literally sweat out.
You can bet on the average price of a Starbucks grande Strawberry Acai Refresher in the month of August. The price being at least $5.09 has gotten 53 percent of its bets in the affirmative. Go up just four cents more, and it’s 6 percent.
Gas prices, jobs reports, the average price of a Chick-fil-A chicken sandwich in August, the winner of Season 28 of Big Brother, and on and on. They’re all gamble-able.
If you want a real long shot, put some coin on Elon Musk to win a Nobel Peace Prize this year. It’s roughly the equivalent to betting on the Colorado Rockies (45-68 through Monday) to win this year’s World Series.
Kalshi claims this stuff isn’t gambling, but rather, a regulated derivatives exchange with the same federal framework that governs wheat futures and oil contracts. A Minnesota law would make it a felony for businesses to create, operate or intentionally support covered prediction markets, but last week a U.S. District Judge granted a preliminary injunction.
I remember my first trip to Las Vegas and thinking how amazingly great it was to walk up to a clerk in a casino sports book and bet $10 on a basketball game, then cheer and grouse while watching the game on one of the book’s big screens.
Circa Las Vegas sportsbook (Circa Las Vegas)
Today, there’s a sports book just down the highway from Iowa City at the casino in Riverside, and it seems completely normal. Nine different online sports books are available in Iowa.
Now, you not only can bet on games at home, you can bet on them during games as the odds change. Live betting, it’s called, though it may as well be called crack cocaine for people with gambling issues.
I’m not especially big on moralizing, especially since I’m pretty sure I won’t sway anyone with intelligence on anything that matters. I will say the following, nonetheless:
“Prediction markets” are gambling sites, case closed.
Being regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission doesn’t mean “Safe for your wallet.”
If you want to bet on whether it will rain in Des Moines tomorrow, first get a unanimous supporting opinion from at least six American Meteorological Society Board-Certified Consulting Meteorologists.
Gambling is for suckers.
That said, take those Golden State Valkyries at home Tuesday night against Toronto despite the very small profit you’ll make. Expansion Toronto has hit the skids after being competitive for the first half of the season, while Golden State is 20-9 and playing great ball. Consider it an investment.
FOOTNOTE: Golden State won, 92-82.
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