Below is my latest commentary published at News24. I wrote this in the wake of the Trump administration’s reduced commitment to the most recent military exercise in South Korea to highlight that we may now see American politicians refocus their attention on Pacific allies in regards to defence spending. To that end, my piece is a plea to the Australian government to increase defence spending from a low 2%of GDP to something more aligned with their own narratives in the National Defence Strategy about the dangerous and unpredictable strategic environment that we now live in.
Over the weekend, the US president posted on social media that he was directing US forces to draw down their involvement in a major military exercise with South Korea.
At the same time, he linked this decision with South Korea’s unwillingness to join in the US’ current war against Iran.
South Korea is a long-term treaty ally of the US.
It has fought alongside the US in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, and hosts US forces that contribute to deterrence against North Korean aggression.
US forces on the peninsula also undertake intelligence collection to monitor North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile developments, as well PLA activities.
Exercises like Ulchi Freedom Shield in South Korea also provide insights into the character of modern war and how military institutions must transform themselves to absorb AI-supported decision-making, space operations, cognitive warfare as well as land, air and sea drone operations.
For the past 18 months, Europe has been on the receiving end of intense criticism from the US about insufficient defence spending and recently, not supporting Trump’s war against Iran.
Some of this is justified given low defence spending and military readiness of NATO countries since 1991.
But, since 2022, the aggression of Putin’s Russia has driven a turnaround in European nations, which have supported Ukraine while stepping up investment in their own militaries.
Believing that his posture towards NATO allies has succeeded (despite damage to relationships), maybe Trump believes that now is the time to turn his attention to allies in the Pacific.
Leaders in nations across our region therefore should be reading Trump’s edict about reducing training with South Korea as a clear signal to step up investment in defence.
This has important implications for Australia.
The Albanese government, while describing our security environment as “a more dangerous and unpredictable era”, continues to demand savings from Defence and has stubbornly kept defence spending at two per cent of GDP.
Analysis by Australia’s pre-eminent Defence budget analyst Marcus Hellyer finds that this year’s defence budget has seen a decline both the percentage of GDP spent on defence and the total figure of defence spending.
Worse, the AUKUS initiative is rapidly stripping spending from the army and air force.
This matters because in scenarios like South Korea or closer to home in places like Papua New Guinea, lethal expeditionary land and air forces are essential.
But, according to Defence’s 2026 Integrated Investment Program, more is being spent on the Navy over the next decade (41 per cent of budget) than the army, air force, cyber and space operations combined (38 per cent of budget).
We therefore have a spending profile that has little room for transformation and assumes all future problems will be solved by a ship or submarine.
Anyone with historical literacy knows that this will not be the case.
Believing that his posture towards NATO allies has succeeded (despite damage to relationships), maybe Trump believes that now is the time to turn his attention to allies in the Pacific. Leaders in nations across our region therefore should be reading Trump’s edict about reducing training with South Korea as a clear signal to step up investment in defence.
We are always surprised by the next war, and we never get to fight the war we wish to fight.
The current ADF budget guarantees that not only will Australia be surprised by the next war, but the Australian people will be surprised by the imbalance in its military and how this degrades responses.
This balance of investment in air, land and sea capabilities, let alone shortfalls in space and drone capacity, must be urgently addressed.
Trump has now turned his eye to nations in the Pacific, and Australia cannot assume that it will avoid his glare.
This demands that we further buttress the Pacific alliance network deterring authoritarian regimes by trying to stay close to the US (that still matters for our defence and economy) while undertaking the kind of rapid military build-up Japan is executing.
While we should be concerned about Trump’s decision-making about our region, and his friendship with the likes of Kim Jong Un, we should also ask ourselves another question.
With our low defence spending, and a government not demonstrating the kind of political will necessary to deter Chinese aggression, are we the kind of ally America will defend?
This article is also available (for free) from News24 at this link.
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