Success is Dangerous

Early this year, one of my dear friends and trusted mentors was opining about a growing concern he had. I have known Bill for more than a decade and have learned that when he is reflecting on a topic, I should pay close attention. At the mature age of eighty plus, he has seen a lot; been through more than most and has made it a habit to learn from what he has experienced. There is real value in listening to age-developed wisdom.

Bill mentioned he was worried about the President’s growing confidence in his ability to pursue bold activities on the international stage. His concern was not an indictment of Trump, nor a complaint. His thoughts were apolitical. It was refreshing to see his unbiased assessment, and again, a demonstration of his ability to step back from emotions and to observe things others might not notice or, more to the point, want to argue about.

He said, “You know, I am worried the President might do something unwise in the coming months, based on the success he has had recently on the international stage. In the last year, he has bombed Yemen, Nigeria, Somalia, and the nuclear facilities in Iran. He has also overthrown the leader of Venezuela. An impressive list of accomplishments that went off without a hitch.”

I was processing what he said and didn’t respond. He then delivered the punchline: “I fear these activities were too easy, and he will do more stuff because he experienced no pain with his prior actions.”

Of course, Bill was right. Success without pain or honest reflection frequently leads to unwarranted overconfidence. You see it all the time in life.

This phenomenon is prevalent among businesspeople who have outsized success with their first attempt. I have witnessed entrepreneurs achieve significant results in their initial startup; only to fall short when they try another company; it is difficult to replicate success.

An entrepreneur gains valuable experience in their first endeavor; however, their next task will present new challenges and different decisions, and outside conditions unseen in the first foray will affect it. These additional variables add to the challenge of repeating, but pale compared to the biggest variable that influences future outcomes: luck.

People struggle to assess honestly how much luck went into a result. We want to rely on the adage that you create your own luck. That sounds good and is a nice motivator, but it hides the truth. Luck plays a big part in everything; life is more random than we want to admit. Sometimes things go well, sometimes they don’t. Failing to assign credit to luck creates an environment that overstates personal value. If you believe your success was all your own doing or that somehow you have a Midas touch and nothing goes wrong when you do it, you will have an outsized problem in the future.

I remember an acquaintance who sold his first company for a lot of money. He was proud of himself, and he should have been. However, to hear him tell it, he was perfect in everything he did; he described himself as the consummate entrepreneur; he was confident he had all the characteristics that ensured he could start companies and sell them continuously. He was talented, but he was lucky, very lucky. There is nothing wrong with luck, if you know you have it and don’t assume that all future endeavors will be the same. If you make that leap, you are playing with fire. My acquaintance has failed three times to repeat his first success; he has lost all the money he made and is starting over. Sadly, when I talk with him, he still cannot understand that his first win had less to do with him and more to do with a myriad of variables he didn’t control.

This tendency to inflate personal contributions to an outcome is why postmortem analysis is so important. A thorough review of what went right and wrong enables people to learn from an experience, identify moments that were purely luck, and perhaps develop a strategy where luck may not be needed. I am reminded of my college football days. The day after a game, the coaches spent most of the day with the players in film study. It didn’t matter if we won or lost. We could expect that they would grade every play to determine how we did. It wasn’t uncommon for the team to win, but for players to have substandard individual grades for the game. The film study was a learning process. It was also humbling.

The need to humble yourself is critical. It allows you to develop into a stronger person. Failure sharpens your skills; even when failure is part of an overall success.

What Bill was conveying in January has come to fruition. We are now at war in the Middle East. You can debate the merit of this; I do not intend to do so. However, this is becoming a worrisome. The misguided belief that everything we do will be easy and that we are so powerful that all we have to do is say something, and we win, has led us into a dangerous place; a place where there are more unknowns than knowns. Now we hear we may go after Cuba. Again, I am not interested in debating the wisdom of this move; I am, however, wondering if the Venezuela experience isn’t guiding our confidence.

I am one who wants our President to do well, all our Presidents. I do, however, worry about the precedent that seems to exist.

In the military, they describe the fog of war; an expression designed to convey the challenge that develops when the scene gets frantic, plans are falling apart, and confusion reigns. The military knows things rarely go exactly as planned. They carried out the mission in Venezuela flawlessly, but what if a helicopter had crashed, or the Marines had walked into a trap? Bad things could have happened; thank God they didn’t. I am certain the military command was relieved when the boots landed back on US soil. I am also sure they we aware how lucky the operation was. Anytime we are involved in a military operation and there are no casualties, we should be grateful and honest; luck was on our side. That is why assuming that, just because it was easy before, means it will be easy now, is dangerous.

I want success for our country, every time. I also want our actions to be measured, well-thought out, and carefully deployed. If we don’t do that, we risk making our success a dangerous trend.