Reading · Eye on the Tropics

Thursday morning Atlantic satellite showing a major outbreak of Saharan dust covering the eastern Atlantic. Credit: NOAA

The Atlantic basin looks to stay in hibernation until at least mid August, something we previewed in this newsletter over a week ago.

A curtain of wind shear is draped across the tropical Atlantic courtesy of the fast-developing Super El Niño and has assembled a road block with little detour for wannabe storms.

Wind shear departure from average forecast for next week (August 10^th through August 15^th) from the European model ensemble system. Warmer colors indicate areas with higher-than-average wind shear, which stretches clear across the Atlantic Main Development Region or MDR. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com

Meanwhile, gobs of dry, Saharan air are heaving off Africa and wafting through the preferred formation areas for early August.

Dust forecast from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model through early next week showing repeated rounds of dust outbreaks stretching across the Atlantic. Credit: weathermodels.com

The combination of these conditions is making the Atlantic an exceptionally hostile place for would-be hurricanes.

While we don’t see any major changes in the big-picture across the Atlantic, longer range models do continue to hint at the possibility of a weak tropical candidate by late next week and next weekend (weekend of August 15^th) over the open Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean.

Low-pressure tracks through the next 10 days (through August 15, 2026) from the traditional, physics-based European model ensemble system (top panel) and the newer, AI-based European ensemble system (bottom panel). Both modeling camps show low chances of a weak system forming late next week over the open Atlantic. Credit: weathermodels.com

Models have waffled on odds, but chances remain low (around 10%) for now. The AI camp has been a little more enthusiastic overall than our traditional physics-based models but both suggest a window for development as we approach the middle part of the month.

The long-term prospects of anything starting out in the eastern Atlantic doesn’t favor transatlantic journeys this season, but we’ll follow the trends for next week. Obviously this isn’t any concern for now and the Atlantic will stay closed for business until further notice.

Hurricane Season Dry Spell Bleeds into Mid-August

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