The Respiratory Outlook update for June comes after New World Screwworm has crossed into the United States, with the USDA confirming the first locally acquired case in Texas on June 3. The Respiratory Outlook 2025/26 is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.
Compared with the May edition, predictions this month show:
The question of whether the country would record a locally acquired NWS infestation before 2027 resolved Yes, with 12 confirmed animal cases across four Texas counties and one in New Mexico as of June 17. Forecasters now expect 111 confirmed animal cases this year, though estimates are climbing as detections spread.
The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC has passed 676 confirmed cases, with forecasters putting the eventual outbreak size near a median of 5,200. They give just a 9% chance of a case first confirmed on US soil before 2027, citing 21-day quarantine rules, limited importation routes, and no asymptomatic spread.
A further drop in 2026 measles case estimates to 3,369 as the rate of new cases continues to decelerate, even with confirmed cases now at 2,073. Forecasters raised the probability of The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) revoking the US’s measles elimination status before 2027 to 85%, up from 80% last month.
Hantavirus and Clade I Mpox stay low-risk. The MV Hondius cluster looks contained, with forecasters lowering the chance of WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this year to 0.4%, down from 2% last month, as well as a 0.4% chance of 5 or more non-passenger cases. Clade I Mpox is expected to reach 39 US cases by year-end.
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