Autocrats destroy republics by cosplaying as moderates, building a winning coalition, then unleashing their ideology once majoritarian political power is secured.
Hugo Chávez. A beret-wearing1 revolutionary, he was sent to prison after his plot to overthrow President Carlos Andrés Pérez was foiled. Once free, he became a friendly suit-wearing “socialist-y but not really” moderate, friendly with opposition and capitalist interests. This image (and his uniquely Latin American charisma) allowed him to secure power with early democratic victories:
In this video, a man who openly denounces Fidel Castro in national television. After a series of high-profile political wins (constitutional referendum, re-election), things changed… Contrast the moderate man with this version of Chávez:
There’s a fun pattern that emerges once you stare closely enough.
President Roosevelt. The man campaigned as a fiscal conservative, only to launch the New Deal—the biggest expansion in government power in US history.
FDR began his 1932 campaign for the presidency espousing orthodox fiscal beliefs. He promised to balance the federal budget, which Herbert Hoover had been unable to do. Indeed, when FDR came into office, the national deficit was nearly $3,000,000,000.2
President Trump. His rebuke of Project 2025 in the election year, only to implement said agenda word by word in the first year of a Republican majority. He goes even further, finishing up the far-right’s wet dream of vastly increasing the scope of executive authority.
Simple playbook: appeal to economic moderates (and capitalist interests), consolidate power, then make real your ideological zeal.
Two sides of the same coin
Another interpretation: real, lasting political change occurs after a moderate-passing politician builds a broad enough coalition in order to secure consolidate political power.
Politics ultimately comes down to “benevolent dictator theory”. History isn’t written by moderates, but lasting political change is secured by appealing to them3.
Whether it’s moving forward or backward depends on who’s the “benevolent dictator”.
Not that that’s a bad thing, we got our guy™️ Curtis Sliwa rocking that thing everywhere. His political takes are ass, but let’s get real, he’s a notable feature in everyone’s dream blunt rotation. Dude is so funny.↩︎
Ezra Klein is somewhat right when he insists that Democrats should try to moderate some positions in order to secure power and protect progressive interests.↩︎
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