The Lesson Every Country Just Learned Is Get Nuclear Weapons

Twenty months in, Hawk lays out the pattern he thinks every foreign ministry on earth has already noticed.

Sort the countries by how this administration treats them. Russia, North Korea, China, Israel, all nuclear, all handled with care. Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, none nuclear, treated very differently. The lesson is not subtle, and governments are not stupid.

Then look at the allies. South Korea sat under an American umbrella for seventy years and is now watching the carrier group leave. Germany is already rebuilding its military, and Germany has no shortage of engineers. France and Britain have their own weapons and have spent this term listening to attacks on NATO. Meanwhile a nuclear program is on offer to Saudi Arabia.

Hawk’s conclusion is that the durable legacy of this presidency will be a proliferation race, because the guarantee that made non proliferation rational for wealthy democracies no longer looks reliable. Adversary states can source the technology from Russia, China, or North Korea.

It is an uncomfortable argument, and it is not a fringe one.