What I Watched This Week: 1/21-1/26

Thanks everyone who continues to support and read my work. It truly means a lot to me, and I wish there was a better way to show my appreciation than just a simple “thanks.”

I want to provide a brief update, since my largest following is on Twitter/X. Without going into too many details, I am migrating away from Twitter as best I can. I still check my DMs, but I have everything else muted and don’t open the app or website anymore unless I absolutely need to. I am proud of what I have built on the platform since 2017, when I first got a following by claiming the Mavs needed to pick Donovan Mitchell, not Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr, with the ninth pick in the draft. Then two years before he took off, I told everyone who would listen that TCU had a shooting guard that could shoot the lights out and was worthy of being drafted (he wasn’t considered an NBA prospect at this point). Since then, I am lucky to work with the Locked On Network, No Ceilings, and my audience through my own Substack who value my work and make my niche field feel heard.

This is not nearly as dramatic as I am making this paragraph out to be by any means, but it does hurt knowing the best of my public work is now more of an archive, and not an active building upon my previous successes. I had begun taking a break from social media in the summer (I highly recommend this; nothing changed except much less unnecessary stresses and distractions), which made moving away from Twitter much easier. Additionally, I get hidden in the algorithm too much and I am not paying for my content to be more visible. You can find me at BlueSky, where I post the same content I have been posting (draft content, some live posting of NBA games, and videos of prospects at all levels).

On a more positive note, I want to start doing more AMA’s on here, which was always one of my favorite things in the past that I admittedly should have been doing more, so I can better understand what my audience wants and to answer more unique questions that open up my own perspectives. In place of my active tweeting (which was probably a bit too active at times), I want to spread the love between BlueSky and writing in-depth pieces, both behind the paywall and public.

With all that being said, let’s get into what I watched this week:

• Kansas vs Kansas State (1/18)

  • Zeke Mayo: Shot is a weapon. Quick feet with clean upper release make his shot projectable. Not sure he is a point guard though, which limits a lot of his NBA upside at 6’4.

  • Flory Bidunga: Lots of activity and movement right away on defense. Gets strong box outs and rebounds. Strong roller Makes good passes out of the paint. Would be so much more valuable if he was 2+ inches taller, but his size will limit him from being a one and done.

• Davidson vs Rhode Island (1/18)

  • Reed Bailey: At 6’11, the shooting upside is apparent with how smooth his free throw mechanics are along with his strong indicators there with good volume. He is not afraid of contact and doesn’t dribble away from drawing fouls. Very smart about how he moves without the ball and out of the P&R. Not going to wow scouts with defense, but at 6’11 with offensive skill he has a bit more room for error on that end than many other players his size. Likely a combo big that can play the 4 or 5 offensively, but is limited to the 4 defensively. Will need to embrace shooting 3s at a high clip to smoothly transition to the NBA.

  • Bobby Durkin: A bit awkward and not the ideal athlete some scouts may picture when they hear of a 6’7 high level shooter, but Durkin is effective at doing what he needs to do. He also is incredibly smart about limiting mistakes, and may be the most careful non-primary initiator in college basketball this year. Very good about simultaneously not over-dribbling but also being effective in two or fewer dribbles. However, this also shows that his handle needs work and he is limited in creating off the dribble. Needs to get quicker in decelerating out of being run off of screens to translate his off-ball shooting threat.

  • Jaden House: With 19 points on 8-11 shooting, I continue to hold some stock for House as an overseas guard. His spin move is impressive and he has some 2000s guard vibes to his game in isolation for both better and worse. He has to become a better shooter from deep and improve his defense involving screen sets, but there is a path to the G League for him.

• NBA thoughts

  • In general, it is incredible how many players just zone out defensively in the regular season, including some of the top defenders. I generally think the narrative of “The NBA doesn’t play defense” is significantly overblown and inflated because of how good offensive players are, but there is some truth to the narrative, and it generally stems from this.

  • The Mavs lost Maxi Kleber to a foot injury this weekend, which makes the Mavs’ need to pursue a gap-stopping big that much more essential. They waived Jazian Gortman for Kylor Kelley, who has been dominant defensively in the G League for some time now, and has more than earned this NBA call-up. Gortman now joins a long list of preseason scorers that never show more than a flash of the pan in a Mavs uniform after a strong summer/preseason. As for an option for guaranteed contracts, I posted a thread about who Dallas could potentially trade for on BlueSky. In short, Drew Eubanks and Day’Ron Sharpe seem like short-term options that could. be traded for relatively easily.

  • Staying on Dallas, Kessler Edwards’ presence against OKC was incredible; in a game everyone played at maximum effort, Edwards was making key plays to hold the defense down and finish plays. His offense is a liability, but the defensive value is there.

  • In the same game, Olivier-Maxence Prosper had the best game of his career, which was a key part of Dallas pulling yet another upset win over OKC. He recorded 14 points on 4-6 shooting with 9 FTA, and showed lots of aggression (which correlates perfectly with the free throw volume). Whether it was a flash of what he can become as a bench piece, or him showcasing potential trade value, the Mavs will be happy with his showing. Unfortunately, he couldn’t see the floor in regular minutes against Boston, but getting this type of game even one out of every three games would be a nice step in the right direction for the young career of OMax.

  • The Magic are finally healthy, but some questions about the surrounding pieces are in order. Anthony Black has the potential to be a good player (and impacts winning now despite low counting stats), but he needs to learn when to be a playmaker and when to channel aggression as a scorer. He passes up good scoring opportunities too much, whether it’s a drive or a spot-up shot. KCP also has some questions, given how poorly he is shooting (low 30s from 3). He makes a lot of plays happen elsewhere, but his impact is best felt when the activity elsewhere is happening and his jumper is falling. Right now, the offense is often dry because of their shooting woes, which KCP was supposed to improve.

  • Amen Thompson’s rise this year continues to explode. He very well may be the second best prospect on the team, and the gap between him and Sengun is shrinking in terms of long-term potential. Everything is there right now except the jumper, and he negates that disadvantage well.

  • Bruce Brown has improved his trade stock as a $20M+ expiring contract out of Toronto. Some contender will end up very happy with him now that he is back to being healthy.

• Minnesota/Iowa

  • More will be coming from this over at No Ceilings, but this game was all about Payton Sandfort and Dawson Garcia. Sandfort is an excellent shooter who will see less pressure at the next level compared to him as a top two option at Iowa, but there are some things that need to be ironed out. Athletic limitations worry me, and how he impacts the game when the shot isn’t falling is still unclear on the stat sheet. I noticed some things around defensive communication and rebounding that positively stood out, but his primary impact is entirely tied to shooting. He doesn’t playmake enough, and he can be a defensive liability on the ball.

  • Dawson Garcia had a big game, showing his shooting ability and good finishing. He stopped being aggressive for a good stretch in the second half though, which someone as experienced as him cannot afford to do in conference play. I don’t buy his defense, and he also has athletic concerns, but this hot streak might just be that: a hot streak. I foresee Garcia getting an invitation to Portsmouth, and anything can happen from there, but his shot has to be excellent to stick in the NBA.

• Maryland/Indiana

  • Derik Queen’s ability to use his body to create space is one of my favorite things in his scoring package. In an NBA that is all about switching, DQ could be a player defenses hesitate to switch a guard onto for this reason. Check out this play in the mid range, where he moves Oumar Ballo with ease. Ballo is not an easy player to move, listed at 260 pounds, which would be one of the top ten weights in the NBA, making this translatable.

• Brewster/Link at Quncy Shootout

  • Davion Hannah has continued his leap from his hot summer in EYBL. With a quick second jump (below), superb athleticism, a good motor, defensive versatility, and a growing shot, he projects to be one of the top four star sleepers at number 50 right now. Hannah is headed to Alabama next year, and depending on the roster, he could shine as a one and done candidate or as a multi-year prospect that shines as a sophomore or junior.

  • Chris Cenac continues to show some fun highs, but also some dangerous lows. Shot selection was a major issue this game, as it was in the three games I saw of him live this season at Link as well. Coach is quick to sub him out because he settles for jumpers or kills a set play for a bad shot. At 6’10 he can do unique things with the ball in his hands, but he has to learn to reduce old habits that work against low end competition. He must adapt to playing his assigned role and knowing when to step out of that and create + bail out the offense when needed.

• Real Madrid vs Andorra (1/19)

  • This was a game Hugo Gonzalez played only 11 minutes, but there was some value in this. Gonzalez’s screen navigation needs work, as he is prone to fouling by either grabbing the screener too aggressively, or by bulldozing through the screener. Still, I believe his defensive upside is quite high thanks to lots of strong instincts on both ends of the floor. Check out this defensive play below, guarding both the drive and the second chance scoring attempt. I am also concerned about his shot, and how he aims it more than he naturally shoots the ball. That will be his swing skill, which will determine if he rides the bench in the NBA or instantly earns minutes.

Kent State/Ohio

• VonCameron Davis

  • This was one of Davis’ worst games, missing simple plays and making mistakes that drive coaches crazy. At 6’5, Davis is a productive scorer that can get to the line well, but he plays an awkward role of a 6’5 post. He needs to adapt his game and be able to operate as a DHO hub style player with a three point threat, but the shot seems far away at this time. Davis should still be able to carve out a role overseas after his Kent State career is complete this year.

  • AJ Brown on Ohio was a surprise eye-catcher, as I was watching this to study Davis’ game as a Kent State star. Here are my notes on Brown, who could either become a star at OU or transfer to a lower level power five/high mid-major and play a key role as a defender with scoring flashes: Intense defender that forces mistakes and turnovers. Has extreme confidence as a shooter, both spotting up and pulling up. Not a point guard so he will have to live as a 6’4 3&D, which can be tough to project up. Missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. Needs to improve shot selection off the dribble; often misses open teammates and forces an unnecessarily difficult shot. Often careless with the ball, dribbling into traps and making lazy, elementary mistakes passing the ball (like throwing a bounce pass as a post entry pass to the big)