Will Tesla Spin Out Tonight?

There are few C-Suite figures more divisive than Elon Musk.

I’ve even gone so far in the past to highlight him as the quintessential example of “CEO risk.”

The antics and escapades of Musk – both favorable and infamous – are directly felt by Tesla (TSLA) investors.

But the company is currently undergoing a once-in-a-generation upheaval.

That creates long-term benefits.

Though, the short-term – with earnings on the docket tonight – is a little more volatile.

Rise, Robots, Rise

You see, Tesla’s future is no longer tied to EVs…

It’s all about the company’s humanoid robot, Optimus.

And the transition underway is swift.

After 14 years of production, Tesla ended production of its Model S and Model X at its Fremont, California facility.

It took just 46 days to dismantle the assembly line.

Now, it’s being converted into the epicenter of Tesla’s Optimus empire.

Just so we’re clear, Morgan Stanley (MS) sees robotics in the U.S. alone driving a $357 billion market by 2040.

Though that’s only the beginning.

The Wall Street bank spies the market expanding to nearly $5 trillion by 2050.

And by then, companies will be rolling in the cash…

In fact, Morgan Stanley believes Apple (AAPL) will be raking in $133 billion per year from humanoids by 2040.

And by 2050, the global robot population will soar past 1 billion, equaling one-tenth of Earth’s human inhabitants.

But the one U.S. name at the forefront has already reshaped the American economy… and plans to do so again with humanoids: Tesla.

In 2025, it held just 4.7% of the global humanoid market share… But CEO Elon Musk believes its Optimus robots are what will make the company worth $25 trillion.

That’s 20 times the $1.42 trillion Tesla is worth today.

So, the long-term story is bullish.

But at the present, the story is a little different. Shares have underperformed in 2026, falling 15.5%.

And with Tesla scheduled to report second quarter earnings this evening, the question on everyone’s mind: Is there more short-term pain ahead?

Putting the Puts in Q2 Earnings

The short answer is, “Yes.”

Now, one of my favorite strategies to employ is my VertEA analysis.

It’s beneficial for both long-term holds and short-term trades.

It also provides a much-needed crystal ball into what to expect from the most volatile season of the year: earnings season.

So, here’s the bad news (and good news for put buyers and Elon haters) … Of all the days on the calendar, Tesla investors need to fear first and second quarter earnings the most.

Since 2015, the future robot overlord supplier has tripped on this report, slipping eight times out of the last 11 years…

And we can see that over the past seven years, shares have tumbled on this report six times… Five of those for 4.98% or more.

In total, Tesla shares are averaging a one-day decline of 2.57% on its second quarter earnings release.

But that’s what we know before even taking a peek at fundamentals.

And here, the view isn’t awful… but it’s not awe-inspiring either.

Wall Street is expecting a 17% increase in sales to $26.36 billion with earnings of $0.54 per share. This is a sequential increase from the first quarter’s $22.4 billion with earnings of $0.41 per share. And more importantly, it’s a rebound from the declines the carmaker was seeing a year ago.

That’s the upside.

The fact is, the same was true in the first quarter and shares declined.

And the trend hasn’t been Tesla’s friend on second quarter earnings for a very long time.

The options market is predicting a +/-9.4% move tonight. Based on yesterday’s close, that would mean a move in shares to as high as $414 or as low as $342.

My VertEA says to side with a move lower.

Expect on average a decline of 2.57%. Though, six of the last seven second quarter one-day drops have been 4.98% or more. That means a move down to around $360.

But if there is a move lower, there’s the potential for an entry for a long-term LEAPs play. Because the robots are coming. And Tesla is at the front of this multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.

Finally, robotic beings rule the world,

Matthew