The Trade With a 94% Success Rate Most Investors Ignore

Imaging tapping a trading pattern so consistent – so shockingly reliable – that its delivered gains 94.4% of the time.

And this success isn’t measured over a handful of years… nor 10… but 18.

Nearly two full decades.

Best of all, this isn’t some obscure penny stock or hidden sector opportunity.

It’s the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ).

That’s right, the proxy for the Nasdaq 100, whose top holdings include Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia (NVDA)… and before long, SpaceX (SPCX).

It’s the home of the biggest of the big names in tech.

Including members of Wall Street’s most elite club - “The $1 trillion Club.”

And over the next 30-plus days, there’s no better place to be…

The Winning Streak That Won’t Die

July is National Ice Cream Month.

It’s also National Hot Dog Month and National Picnic Month.

And that makes perfect sense.

In the U.S., it’s a scorcher. Americans are outside flipping burgers on the grill and roasting hotdogs over campfires.

Parks are filled with picnickers and families hosting everything from birthday parties to reunions.

We all know there’s no better burger than one consumed on a paper plate while sitting at a picnic table surrounded by family and friends, reminiscing, and laughing about both the good times and bad.

And there are few more enjoyable moments than eating a sweet treat as an escape from the heat.

Of course, July is also home to Independence Day – the father of all cookout celebrations. And this year, Americans are celebrating 250 years of independence.

But these are only a handful of reasons why I love this month…

You see, as a trend investor and strategist, July is arguably the most perfect month of the year.

So, forget the so-called “Summer Lull.”

In tech, July is a tentpole.

It’s a month that defies crises, panics, and headlines that send most traders running for cover.

Just take a look…

Keep this chart in mind over the next month.

Because through global financial meltdowns, U.S. credit downgrades, European debt bombs, Fed rate hikes, trade wars, a worldwide pandemic, and bear markets, the Qs have gained in July in 17 of the last 18 years (including 16 years consecutively).

In fact, in 2022, during that wealth destroying bear market, large cap tech soared more than 13% in July. It was by far the best month of the year for the index.

There is no other month like it on the calendar.

And the only thing that triggered a hiccup in the last 18 years was the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt of Donald Trump… which ignited a large-cap tech selloff as it essentially guaranteed him re-election. Investors immediately had to re-price the market with the expectations of Trump’s incoming global policies… in particular, tariffs.

That’s how powerful this July trend is.

The Costly Mistake of “Too Simple”

You can ignore this.

Most people will.

They’ll tell themselves it’s “too obvious.”

Or that “this time is different.”

Or they’ll wait for a pullback that never comes… while the Qs grind higher without them.

That’s the real risk here.

Not a crash… Not a headline... Not some black swan.

It’s missing a pattern that’s been hiding in plain sight for 18 years.

A pattern Wall Street won’t package for you… because it’s too simple. Too repeatable. Too profitable if you actually act on it.

At the moment, the QQQ is trading below its 52-week high of $748.65, which was set back on June 3.

And the reason for that is Microsoft – the third largest component of the Nasdaq 100 - just ended June with its worst monthly performance since 2000.

Broadcom (AVGO) also suffered its worst monthly loss in June since March 2025. And it earned the distinction as second-largest monthly decline since going public in 2009.

So, I’m looking for a rebound there from both.

But despite the lackluster performance of the Mag 7 in the first half of the year, the Qs are leaving the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 in the dust.

That means any dip in July is a buying opportunity.

Over the past 10 years, the QQQ is averaging a 3.97% gain in the month. And over the past 10 years, that’s risen to 4.42%.

That gives us a price target of $765.64 to $768.95 by July 31. (For those options traders wondering what strike is priced right.)

Of course, those big gains on the Qs are driven by the biggest names in big tech… some of which are putting up even better numbers in the month over the past decade…

So, as the summer sun blazes and the fireworks crackle, remember: July isn’t just for vacations.

It’s for gains.

And right now, the window is open.

You don’t need a new narrative.

You don’t need a macro thesis.

You only need to decide if you’re going to exploit one of the most reliable calendar effects in the biggest names on earth… or sit on the sidelines and watch it happen again.

Because come August… nobody cares what you almost did.

Ready for some summer fun,
Matthew