The Only Thing You Need to Know About Crypto Now

“Is this the beginning of the end?”

That’s the question circling around mainstream media outlets and finance desks across the globe.

Is the crypto craze on its last legs? Is it finally about to crash and burn?

For the naysayers and Bitcoin haters it’s a time to clear their throats and smugly proclaim, “I told you so!” The same refrain they’ve desperately clung to for 15 years.

And at a quick glance, to the uninitiated they might seem right…

From August’s Highs to September’s Slide

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has been on slippery slope.

And on Thursday, dipped below $109,000… a 12.5% drop from those all-time highs in August.

Ethereum is on the same decline, falling double-digits.

And the world’s second-largest crypto just plowed through $4,000, seemingly on its way even lower.

Meanwhile, shares of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) tumbled below $300 for the first time since April.

Last week, $300 million and counting fled from Ethereum ETFs. And more than $140 billion in crypto market cap evaporated.

So… “Is this the beginning of the end?”

Well, I’ll let you in on a little secret few outside of crypto know…

Crypto’s Treacherous Two-Month Stretch

For over a decade I’ve been covering Bitcoin.

From the first days of a seemingly religious moment, to the earliest scams (some of those still being repackaged today), to a rise to legitimacy.

I’ve gone from skeptic, to trader, to long-term investor.

And during that time I learned to recognize a number of trends. Some that have helped prevent me from getting overextended, as well as being patient to score more gains. And over the years, I’ve shared many of these here.

But today, let’s revisit one of my annual favorites… crypto seasonality.

What’s important to understand is August is traditionally a horrible month for Bitcoin.

This year, the world’s largest crypto ended the month with a loss of 6.5%. Keep in mind, that was after setting new all-time highs.

But digital gold has ended August lower four years in a row. And it’s only posted three gains in the month since 2015.

For a while, September was when the crypto losses would pile up. But that stretch only lasted from 2017 to 2022… the rest our gains.

And despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin is still higher this month than where it began.

But let’s forget the foreplay and get to the real matter at hand…

The 20% Run We’ve Been Waiting For

In just a few days’ time, the greatest annual catalyst on the crypto calendar begins: “Uptober.”

Over the past decade, Bitcoin is averaging a 21.58% gain in the month of October…

It’s delivered eight double-digit gains. And has finished the month only once with a decline.

Best of all, Uptober is followed by November – where Bitcoin is averaging a 7.05% gain in the month. And then December – where the crypto has charged higher an average of 9.23%.

That’s followed by February – the second-best month for Bitcoin – where the cryptocurrency averages an 11.97% return over the last decade.

Over the years, I’ve developed a crypto trading plan…

In August, I tighten stops on the short-term gains I already have. It’s okay to exit with profits to give me dry powder down the road.

In September, I hit pause… waiting for a pullback.

And when I get one, I feel confident to act, knowing that Uptober is on the horizon.

Volatility in crypto – as in equities – isn’t the enemy but an ally.

It’s a way to target new opportunities at a discount.

So, if you’ve been nestled on the sidelines waiting for a pullback… one just arrived. And it happened at just the right time.

This isn’t the beginning of the end… it’s the start of the annual bull run.

Adding to crypto confidently,
Matthew

P.S. You can also find me every Tuesday and Thursday in Eagle Financial Publishing’s Eye on the Market. And I’m also a contributor to Legacy Wealth HQ