Social Intelligence, in the fast-evolving field of behavioural finance, is used by professionals in trading & investing systems to decode the crowd’s behaviour and predict market shifts.
Bitcoin sentiment rose 2 points despite the price drop, but remains at fear. Falling indicators suggest we may be forming the next major bottom, and professionals are significantly net long.
Stocks are trickling lower from 68 to 60 over the last 2 weeks, as the S&P500 inches higher; an interesting dichotomy. They have remained in greed for 7 weeks, contrary to the last 19months ’ behaviour, where they rapidly retraced. If this is what people are expecting, then it’s likely it will no longer repeat.
Consumers have continued to eat into their savings as personal income falls, with the decline accelerating since January. Excessive spending is going towards energy, gas and household essentials, while costs are being cut on non-essentials like clothes and insurance.
US GDP for Q1 was revised down from 2% to 1.6%, primarily reflecting downward revisions to investment and consumer spending.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity reflects the PMI expansion, with z-score trending upwards and increasing to +1 standard deviation; very positive. The dichotomy is the same: economic expansion with spending contraction; not sustainable.
Retail market attention has flatlined to inattention across all assets after its huge drop in AI interest, reflecting the US BEA reports spending habits. Without attention, liquidity will be very thin if the market turns around; expect huge volatility. I would like to see attention pick-up again before making any inferences of a trend reversal.
According to Google Trends and Costco, consumers are trading down to lower-quality products and actively prioritising comfort, wellness, and “pick-me-up” purchases, reflecting social depression kicking in.
Institutional greed is beyond extreme, as bearish positioning is the lowest in over a year, amid low, yet increasing SPY volume. Pros have little interest in selling at these levels, getting more comfortable in their bullish outlook. The last time PCR was at these levels, many risk-on assets crashed 50%. Is it time to “Sell in May and go away?”
What is really going on with sentiment and attention? I dive deeper with the nuanced social intelligence below to uncover a different story.
Whether you’re a professional, individual, trader or investor, this institutional-grade Social Intelligence analytics delivers high-conviction alpha, sharp contrarian signals and forward-thinking insights to level-up your decisions, forming an essential edge in modern trading/investment systems in the fast-evolving field of behavioural finance.
Traditional sentiment indicators, like the fear and greed index, are lagged and derived from market positioning and price movement- this is not real sentiment. My natural language processing extracts True Sentiment and Social Attention metrics, helping you spot market shifts and events before the crowd with greater accuracy — this is where institutional alpha happens.
Subscribers receive exclusive access to processed Social Intelligence Level 2 Market analysis. Adding these to your screening arsenal can significantly boost your accuracy and timing when making entry/exit investment decisions, while simultaneously working as a signal filter to help you sidestep costly fake-outs in trading.
This proprietary research is for personal and professional use only. It must not be redistributed in any form, and the author must be credited when quoted. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Social Attention (Pros+retail) remains neutral. Retail Attention is ticking up out of frustration with falling prices. The bullish divergence remains; attention is lower, while prices are higher, signalling a continued bull run, but prices are finally catching up with mood, so this may be negated.
True Sentiment (Natural language processing) is as low as it can go, leaping from extreme bullish to bearish. My previous analysis is playing out; extreme bullish readings are giving way to a short-term reversal in price. Sentiment is so frustrated with the lack of momentum and teased hope that the negativity and volatility of sentiment are huge.
Recent bottom signal stats: AVG max upside 94.6% | AVG max downside -9.9%
Social Attention (Pros+retail) has reached inattention, as all-time high hype fades and investors chase the new shiny toy. Retail attention is turning upwards, but nothing significant.
True Sentiment (Natural language processing) has hit the extreme fear threshold, as a short-term reversal is the most anticipated outcome. Will consensus be punished?
Top signal stats: AVG max upside 13.2% | AVG max downside -18.1%
Social Attention (Pros+retail) remains volatile, as only devoted chatter remains in this inattention blackout, setting the stage for a surprise rally.
True Sentiment (Natural language processing) has dropped to extreme fear as the bullish outlook across social media chatter declines.
Mixed signals, but inattention dominates as the signal here. I am expecting a decent rally in the near future.
Disclaimer: The material presented herein is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, trading, tax or accounting advice. Maddox Metrics is a personal website for the author to share his work and ideas. The author, newsletter or website is not registered as financial advice, financial advisor, money manager or money management of any kind. All opinions, trade ideas, price targets and risk parameters reflect personal views at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Trading financial assets involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for every investor. You can lose part or all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before acting on any information, conduct your own due diligence or consult a licensed financial professional.
By reading or acting on this content, you acknowledge and agree that neither DeTrended, Maddox Metrics, nor the author will be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided, including but not limited to lost profits, trading losses, or any other direct, indirect, or consequential damages. Use risk management responsibly and never trade or invest with money you can not afford to lose.
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