Social Intelligence Investor #45: SPCX Rugged, Economy Expanding, Seasonal Uncertainty Abound

Social Intelligence, in the fast-evolving field of behavioural finance, is used by professionals in trading & investing systems to decode the crowd’s behaviour and predict market shifts.

I am slowly returning to normal life after selling my home and relocating. What a polava: between expensive fees, rising service costs, and the government demanding its unearned slice of every transaction along the way! My personal sentiment about the UK economy is at an all-time low; the housing market is in a dire situation.

Not much has changed in the last month; typical for the summer and World Cup season. The Iran conflict continues to be a rollercoaster of lies, but retail attention is long gone anyway.

Consumer sentiment is slowly improving from its persistent all-time lows, but does not suggest a shift in trend. A new shock will undoubtedly send this to fresh lows, curbing spending habits further.

Smart money aligns with the economic statistics: US manufacturing and services are still expanding in June, markets are not yet showing signs of a reversal as pros lean into bullish positioning, and Polymarket’s odds of a recession are at yearly lows.

Social mood remains negative, and attention for investing remains at significant lows. SpaceX IPO attention is long gone, as retail investors bought the hype and lost, as warned.

Sentiment signals are strong in this environment; it is significantly driven by social bias.

The record-length Bitcoin fear persists as the price hits new local lows, with no relief rally in sight. Social media has never seen sentiment this bad, and it continues to worsen. All of this points to a capitulation phase, especially as the only net buyers are whale wallets soaking up all the panic. Even Microstrategy is selling at a loss. Indicators, models and sentiment are all signalling this move as a major bottom.

Stock sentiment is a rollercoaster as prices whipsaw between highs and lows, creating a nervous social mood. Directional clarity will be met with a shift in ‘certainty’.

Rational retail sentiment exploded bearishly as a reaction to the expected market dip. This cohort of investors is uncertain of the market’s future, with a near 50/50 split in opinion.

Sophisticated sentiment in the US economy is significantly optimistic, and approaches historical topping levels. US manufacturing and services PMI once again demonstrate a resilient and expanding economy in June. The eurozone shows a slightly expanding manufacturing economy but a contracting services sector, reflecting consumer job concerns.

Global yield narrative is suspiciously quiet as the new normal of sticky inflation and high rates persists. Yields are once again rising towards new highs after a recent dip. The narrative will return at new local highs, as is tradition. Further upside pressure will continue to hurt housing markets and debt refinancing as borrowing costs surge.

Reflecting these concerns, US rates have a 27.3% chance of increasing, the highest we have seen in a while. After its recent rate hike, Europe could see another, with a 17% chance.

Retail attention for all assets remains at significant lows, reflecting financial constraints and supporting exchange metrics of a 30% decrease in activity.

The SpaceX IPO roadshow worked a charm, extracting retail attention from March, and their capital is now in the hands of the angel investors as the stock begins to deteriorate below the launch price. We were warning of this for months. Attention is already close to 0.

Retail searches for ‘trading’ remain greater than searches for ‘investing’, reflecting modern market social biases that have them believing they can outperform markets. The statistics know otherwise.

Trading down to cheaper products and low-cost comforts for emotional reassurance remains consumers’ defining shopping behaviour.

Smart money’s spike in bearish sentiment has reversed over the last month, with bullish positioning returning. This has left PCR trendless, with the macro trend bullish and the local trend bearish. SPY volume has dropped back to significant lows, not something we look for at a market top, as Pros have little interest in supplying the market, adding confidence to a bullish outlook.

With bond yields rising once more, safe-haven demand is flipping positive but remains neutral. There is a minor shift to risk-on, with a higher low made in June, suggesting a major trend shift could be on the cards. Not good for stocks.

VIX Volatility Index remains below average levels, leaning bullishly, with local whipsaw for about 12 weeks now. This is a strong position for the VIX to remain in, supporting bullish continuation in stocks after this consolidation period ends.

What is really going on with sentiment and attention? I dive deeper with the nuanced social intelligence below to uncover a different story.

I am not fully set up and back in my office yet, so I do not have access to new information for this section, but I will leave the last reports on.

Whether you’re a professional, individual, trader or investor, this institutional-grade Social Intelligence analytics delivers high-conviction alpha, sharp contrarian signals and forward-thinking insights to level-up your decisions, forming an essential edge in modern trading/investment systems in the fast-evolving field of behavioural finance.

Traditional sentiment indicators, like the fear and greed index, are lagged and derived from market positioning and price movement- this is not real sentiment. My natural language processing extracts True Sentiment and Social Attention metrics, helping you spot market shifts and events before the crowd with greater accuracy — this is where institutional alpha happens.

Subscribers receive exclusive access to processed Social Intelligence Level 2 Market analysis. Adding these to your screening arsenal can significantly boost your accuracy and timing when making entry/exit investment decisions, while simultaneously working as a signal filter to help you sidestep costly fake-outs in trading.

This proprietary research is for personal and professional use only. It must not be redistributed in any form, and the author must be credited when quoted. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Social Attention increased above the panic threshold, lagging the crash to $59k, as social media is alive with conspiracy theories and “bitcoin is dead” declarations once more. This always marks a major bottom. Retail attention spiked, remains elevated, but is falling, demonstrating their short attention span.

True Sentiment (NLP) hit an all-time low, but is starting to increase as the remaining long-term bulls begin to dominate the bear noise.

Bottom signal stats: AVG max upside 94.6% | AVG max downside -9.9%

Social Attention popped to inattention, before the drop to $292 sparked extreme bearish chatter. Retail attention has flatlined at the lows after trying to show up on the recent all-time high.

True Sentiment (NLP) is extremely bearish, reflecting the consensus outlook of a market top and retracement expectation.

Both signals are setting the stage for higher prices.

Bottom signal stats: AVG max upside 41% | AVG max downside -7%

Tesla is experiencing a persistent drop-off in Social Attention, alongside retail vanishing. This stock has done nothing for a long time; investors have moved on.

True Sentiment (NLP) remains in extreme fear.

Bottom signal stats: AVG max upside 94% | AVG max downside -13%

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