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Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East on 28 February, energy markets have experienced increased volatility, with a marked rise in oil and gas prices. However, our analysis indicates that the impact on advanced economies is likely to be moderate, provided that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not drag on. What mechanisms are at work and what risks have been identified? In…
Welcome to this new episode of MacroWaves , the podcast from BNP Paribas’s Economic Research department. In this episode, we’re joined by Pascal Devaux to discuss a crucial issue for Europe: its energy dependence. Reliance on imports highlights the European Union’s lack of energy sovereignty. This applies to both the primary energy mix and the infrastructure needed for its low-carbon transition.…
In this new episode of MacroWaves, we examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping growth in emerging economies. We hear from three economists at BNP Paribas Economic Research: Lucas Plé, Christine Peltier, and Hélène Drouot. While Asia dominates semiconductor production, other countries, such as those in Latin America and Africa, are either exploiting their mineral resources or falling…
Between rising interest rates, an ageing population and massive rearmament needs, the budgetary equation for advanced economies is becoming increasingly complex. Why is debt continuing to grow in the United States and France, while it is falling in Spain and Italy? How does Germany intend to finance its infrastructure and defence without jeopardising its budgetary stability? In this new episode of…
Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Macro Waves, the BNP Paribas Economic Research podcast. Today, we're looking at household consumption, which remains the main driver of growth in both the Eurozone and the United States. As we all know, household consumption suffered a major negative shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, growth has remained very moderate in the Eurozone,…
In today’s discussion, we delve into the public finances of emerging economies in 2025, based on an exclusive analysis of our most recent EcoPerspectives issue focused on these economies. With robust but slowing growth, rising public debt and limited fiscal flexibility, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for these countries? That's what we're going to explore with Hélène Drouot, an expert…
https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade? Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced…
As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the…
To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries. In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global…
In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics. #growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk Reading advice : Équipe Économies Avancées | EcoPerspectives — Économies Avancées | 2ème trimestre 2025 – Etudes…
