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Nazarii’s Substack · May 21, 2025

Where to Watch Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United: Predictions & Preview

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Nazarii · Nazarii’s Substack

  • 21.05.2025, Wed

  • Venue: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao) (53 331)

  • Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Tottenham Hotspur - Manchester United (1X2) (Now) 30.7% - 28.6% - 40.7%

Initially - 33.3% - 27.8% - 39%

Our Initial ML Estimation - 34.2% - 28.5% - 38%

  • Tottenham Hotspur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

  • Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tottenham Hotspur than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

  • Neutral location - Estadio San Mamés.

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tottenham won 4.

  • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

  • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

  • There will not play in Tottenham: Bergvall L. (Ankle Injury) Dragusin R. (Knee Injury) Forster F. (Inactive) Kinsky A. (Inactive) Kulusevski D. (Knee Injury) Maddison J. (Knee Injury) Reguilon S. (Inactive) Scarlett D. (Groin Injury) Werner T. (Thigh Injury)

  • There will not play in Man Utd: Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) de Ligt M. (Knee Injury)

  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tottenham won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 34:29. (average 1.7:1.5).

  • Including home matches between the teams, Tottenham won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.5:1.5).

  • The Premier League’s two lowest-ranked surviving clubs have a unique opportunity to save face in an otherwise embarrassing campaign, as Tottenham and Manchester United clash in the UEFA Europa League (UEL) final at Bilbao’s San Mamés. It’s the sixth European final to be contested between two English sides, and the third to involve Tottenham (W1, L1), who are chasing their first major trophy of any description in 17 years.

  • Under-fire Tottenham manager Ange Postecoglou is the first Australian to lead a side into a major European final, with this presenting him with the opportunity to live up to his promise of always winning a trophy in his second season in charge of a club. Spurs can certainly take confidence from winning all three prior H2Hs this season, while they’ve also set a new club record for most games won in a single European campaign (nine).

  • While not quite under the same pressure as Postecoglou, Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim will look to the club’s ninth European final to inject some life into his faltering tenure at Old Trafford. He could now become just the third Red Devils boss to win a major trophy in his first season in charge, and doing so would see United become just the fourth side to win the UEL without suffering a single defeat in the competition all season (W9, D5).

  • United’s 35 UEL goals scored this term is a tally only bettered by three sides in the competition’s history, and a three-goal haul in the final would hand them the outright record and set them well on their way to a second success in the UEL in eight years, but to do that the Red Devils need to banish their recent H2H demons. United are winless in the last six H2Hs (D2, L4), having never previously gone seven without a victory against Tottenham, while defeat would mark the first time they’ve been beaten by a side four times in the same season since 1985/86.

  • Players to watch: Tottenham striker Dominic Solanke has scored in each of his last four matches against Manchester United (G5). He’s directly contributed to nine goals in the UEL this term (G5, A4), with only two players previously scoring and assisting 5+ goals in a single campaign in this competition. Bruno Fernandes (G7, A4) could also reach that landmark, with only Lyon’s Rayan Cherki (12) registering more goal involvements than the United captain in this year’s competition.

  • Hot stat: Eight of the last 11 H2Hs have produced over 2.5 goals.

  • Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Tottenham will win (votes: 13 - 26.5%). Man Utd will win (votes: 14 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 44.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31%58.8%.

  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Tottenham (votes: 2 - 25%). Man Utd (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

  • Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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