Some first thoughts on the franken-question

Well, we’ve seen the question, which is a franken-question that stitches together the Forever Canada question “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada” with a jumble of words “or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution1 to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”2

This is as close as the Premier could come to having a referendum on separatism without triggering the duty to consult. So, a referendum on having a referendum.

At first blush, this makes no one happy. The federalists don’t want a referendum, and the separatists don’t like this question, because it kicks the can down the road. Smith looks like someone who’s trying to ride two bicycles at the same time, insisting on having a referendum while proclaiming herself a federalist.

And yet, despite my dire predictions on the weekend that the separatists would try to unseat her as party leader, I wonder if she hasn’t saved herself. The question is consequential enough that both the federalists and the separatists will have to campaign. And I’m not sure that the separatists have the organizational might to both mount a referendum campaign and unseat a party leader. The question, then, is whether they’re more interested in the campaign or revenge. Time will tell.