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I drafted the attached paper for the Journal of Economic Perspectives (the AEA s general journal that has non-technical articles any economist can read) as part of a planned (virtual) symposium on fertility. The very low levels of fertility in nearly all of the rich, industrial world is drawing increasing media and popular attention, for reasons Continue reading "Fertility, ageing and the…
There are (at least) two ways in which the word need is used. One is a conditional necessity to achieve some other desired goal. There are biological needs: the rule of threes mnemonic is that the human body can go 3 minutes without air, 3 hours without shelter (in a harsh environment), 3 days without Continue reading "Still no need for unmet need for contraception: Even an RCT says so"
Awhile back I was exchanging emails with a very savvy economist who works almost exclusively on the USA. I was arguing that development should be 80 percent devoted to national development and 80 percent of that to (inclusive) growth and only 20 percent to programs that mitigate the consequences of the lack of national development Continue reading "Economic growth, to a non-development economist…
Yesterday (April 29, 2025) I was at a conference of scholars who work mainly on the USA (the first time in my life I have been to a two day event devoted exclusively the the USA). I met someone new and she asked What is it you do? and I said I am a development Continue reading "Raise the Bar II: Return of a Development Economics actually about Development"
This new paper, with Martina Viarengo, addresses a narrow technical question in order to get traction on some very large consequential (and currently hotly debated) questions about development and development assistance. The technical question is pretty easily posed, with a little background. A global lower-bound poverty line of dollar a day (which is now P$2.15 Continue reading "Raise the Bar:…
My 2022 paper on national development showed that the fourfold transformation of high productivity (economic growth), state capability, a responsive government, and social cohesiveness (equal treatment of all citizens) was empirically necessary and empirically sufficient for high levels of human wellbeing. Knowing that this four-fold transformation or getting to Denmark reliably leads to good…
As a contribution to a Growth Summit in Washington DC on October 16 and 17 2024 I wrote a synthesis of recent empirical work of mine articulating that economic growth (and more broadly national development) is central to achieving goals for improving human wellbeing. I show that across an array of potential goals: (i) reducing Continue reading "The case for sustained, rapid, inclusive-enough…
This is the title of a new column by the lead economic columnist for the Financial Times Martin Wolf that reflects some of my papers in discussing a challenge faced by all rich industrial countries: ageing. Ageing populations are leading these economically advanced countries into ratios of the labor force to historically unprecedented low levels. Continue reading " Immigration is essential and…
I was invited to give a keynote speech as part of a 10 speaker series as part of the celebration of the 75th year of CEPAL. I was invited with a specific title, which I pretty much stuck to, and which is the title of the attached longish essay that was the substance behind the Continue reading "A speech at CEPAL (ECLAC) Santiago on Education and Growth"
The Washington Consensus started from John Williamson s 1989 attempt to briefly summarize some things that were driving the development agenda and then became, even in the pre- meme or viral era a two word viral meme that has elicited strong reactions ever since. With more bravery than I have, LSE professors Andres Velasco, Tim Besley, and Continue reading "A London Consensus on Basic Education in…