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Braxton Ashcraft is struggling against left-handed hitters (5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, BB, 5 K). Over his first 17 starts of the season, he had a 25% K-BB against lefties with a 15% swinging-strike rate. Over his last six starts, he’s fallen to a 12% K-BB and an 11% swinging-strike rate. It’s a small sample, but it’s been the main reason for his 5+ FIP over these outings given he’s gotten better against right-handed hitters. Several things could be driving this regression. The main one that jumps out to me is the location of his slider and curveball. Over these last six starts, he’s not burying either pitch down-in against lefties (see below). The whiff rate on both shapes has fallen 10 percentage points as a result. His curveball’s zone miss has also dropped from 24% to 11% (14% is average). Maybe this is connected to a 0.5-1 mph drop in velocity on both shapes? When this happens while four-seam velocity stays steady, it usually signals loss in breaking-ball feel.

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