Quinn Mathews has made a pair of decent starts in the majors (4 IP, 2 H, ER, 3 BB, 7 K). He was once a top-20 pitching prospect in 2024 who earned three promotions and coasted up to Triple-A. He’s best known for throwing 156 pitches for Stanford at the 2023 College World Series. He struggled mightily in 2025, walking 17% of the batters he faced. His four-seam shape regressed as his velocity fell from 94.4 mph to 93 mph and the pitch lost both vertical and horizontal break. While his stuff has somewhat rebounded this season—he’s sat 94 mph in the majors—his 12% walk rate at Triple-A has been a problem. His best secondary is his changeup, which is thrown with a four-seam orientation, similar to John Means and Patrick Sandoval (his grip is here). He also throws a fringe-average slider and a slow curveball.
The feature of Mathews’ profile is his release traits and how they interact with his four-seamer. He’s 6’5” with average extension for his height (6.6’) and an average 40° arm angle. I fed those numbers into a model that said roughly 98% of pitchers with those characteristics have a release height between 5.5’ and 6.5’. Mathews’ actual release height is 5.3’. How he’s achieving that perplexes me, but occasionally there are pitchers who get to release points you don't expect. A fastball with 16.6” vertical break at 94 mph plays from that release. It all works together to flatten his four-seamer’s vertical approach angle to -4.0°. That’s flatter than 95% of four-seamers in MLB. Early indications are that his four-seam command is the worst of any shape in his mix, which is unfortunate given its quality.
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