Lots of Draft Thoughts

• The Lakers are winning, so now the pick is more mid-late 20s

• The bigs to look at in Krivas, Chinyelu, Cenac, Bidunga, Mara

• The thin hope a deep draft class because of players returning back to school because the NIL salary is worth more than a mid 1st rounder

Those following me on Twitter/X know that I’m a Motiejus Krivas fan. In short, he’s a listed 7’2” center with a 7’5” wingspan and a drop coverage big. He plays up to touch out of PnR which can help discourage midrange shooting from initiators, while being able to backpedal and track to lob threat as well.

Please follow Ordinary Scout.

https://www.youtube.com/@ordinaryscout210

New and underrated draft video account.

Opponent eFG against Krivas is 41.8%

TS% against Krivas is 45.1%

Shots at the rim per 48 drop from roughly 19 to 17.

Opponents shoot 49.9% at the rim against Krivas.

Non paint 2-point % is 33%.

While those stats were taken as a snapshot a few weeks ago prior to the NCAA Tourney, it’s plenty of sample size with well over 20 games into the regular season.

But, Krivas does more than what those stats show.

• Excellent screening; not just perimeter for PnR, but Gortat screens, and creating separation for movement shooters

• He actively roots out post players with effectiveness. While he’s clearly stronger than Flory Bidunga, he has shown to push out Flory’s catches from 10’ in the paint out to 16’.

• He occupies space in the paint. You know the centers that are just huge don’t use a lot of effort to get to the spot they want? He does that.

• He doesn’t drop cover just to sit in the paint and wait. He can be up to touch with guards that want to take space after a screen, while being mindful of the lob threat.

• He’s a limited mistake drop coverage center, which I think is really important to be a defensive anchor.

• Top tier verticality center, which shows in a lower than expected 7.5% blk rate, but excellent opponent FG% against as shown with the earlier opponent shooting statistics.

Upside?

• The upside here is his soft touch and shooting ability. He’s 78.6% at the FT line, far 2 is 56.2% (50/89 FG). That stat to me feels like a type, but that’s basically 3 midrange to long 2s, and he’s shooting 56% from that range? Oh, that 3pt range is inevitable.

• His current 3pt shooting is 4/12 from the field at 33.3%. The shots I’ve seen show zero hesitancy but he’s taking his time. All of this to say, he has soft hands and actual touch, and these shooting numbers don’t show his dexterity around the rim, comfortable with the left or right hand.

Issues?

• Athletic ones. He may have a strong base, a great center of gravity, strong legs, and be able to run backwards on balance, but he doesn’t jump high. He jumps quickly, but the height isn’t great. Teams can still shoot over him at the rim even if he does everything right defensively.

• 63% with close 2s, when usually a player with his level of touch and size is usually closer to 70%.

• A bit foul prone. Over 4 fouls per 40, where he gets his hand in the cookie jar with the light shoves to a player’s back when trying to get rebounds.

All of that to say, I don’t expect him to last to the mid-late 1st round because I’d have him mid 1st to lottery. I haven’t made a board yet, but I think that evaluation explains why I think he should be ranked so highly on the Lakers board.

Okay, this won’t be as thorough as the previous observation with Krivas.

Chinyelu - In short, the shorter Steven Adams, but won’t get played off the floor because of his perimeter defensive footwork. He doesn’t have immense height. He’s okay as a drop coverage center (think of it like Jaxson Hayes where he’ll try to do everything right, but the opponent doesn’t really see him as a rim deterrent).

He’s listed at roughly 6’10”, but with an outstanding 7’8”wingspan. While Krivas is the guy that puts a flag down at different spots in the paint to get rebounds, Chinyelu, holds ground as best as he can, maneuvers more effectively, and extends.

How good?

17.8% Offensive Rebound Rate

30.4% Defensive Rebound Rate

24.2% Total Rebound Rate

What does that translate per-40?

6.6(!!!!!) Offensive Rebounds

11.9 (!!!!!) Defensive Rebounds

18.5 Total Rebounds Per 40 on 4.7 fouls.

Remember Andre Drummond at UConn? Chinyelu is a lot better.

Remember Steven Adams at Pitt? Chinyelu is better.

So, Chinyelu does that, and this:

Cenac - In short, I think of him as Bobby Portis. He’s comfortable shooting from midrange out to the 3pt line, but unlike Portis, competes defensively along the perimeter too. Is it to the level of Chinyelu? No, but it’s effective. Is he a rim protecting center? Not really. I think of him as a 4 getting away with playing 5 at the NCAA level. He’s learned a lot at Houston, but the way he’s talked about at the college level, it leaves me wanting more, even if he plays a physical defensive style at Houston. I just think he’s also the type that’ll be bullied in the paint. He’s not the strongest rebounder of the names mentioned either.

Follow NellB on YT. Just a wealth of college prospects and gameplay here.

https://www.youtube.com/@Nellb8

Bidunga - Oh, how I wish he was 7’1”. I was excited about Yanic Konan Niederhauser last year, and Bidunga is the one that closest resembles his game. Why did I like Yanic? He’s a lob threat, a developing shooter, capable of attacking closeouts out to the 3pt line, and just physical enough to be a solid rebounder and interior defender. It was a great combination of a lot of tools.

Well, Bidunga is that, but more at 6’9” 240. The shooting that Yanic showed last year? That’s not Bidunga. The most optimistic version of Bidunga would be Nic Claxton, or if Jarred Vanderbilt was a center. He has that level of motor. He’s strong. He’s that level of lob threat. He really competes for rebounds and defensively. He’s an underrated switchable perimeter defender! One of his best poster dunks was against Krivas! But against bigger players like Krivas, he struggled with size and physicality and got cleared out, and frankly, the Lakers don’t offer the halfcourt spacing that’ll allow him to succeed. Frankly, I think there’s an argument for him to stay because he’d likely make more in NIL money than a late 1st / early 2nd contract.

Mara - I think this is the evaluation that a lot of Laker fans are looking for, but the last game vs. Purdue really solidified all of the issues I have with him. See, Krivas isn’t a super run and jump athlete. You know what? Luka Doncic isn’t a super run and jump athlete. You know what Luka does? Shift his weight more effectively. It’s not just deceleration in terms of accelerating and going to a stop or jab-step like changing direction on offense. He does it laterally. It’s so weird watching a player with an average lateral quickness change direction on his lateral effectively when he wants to.

Well, Krivas’s athleticism is like that. This is why I place so much importance on bigmen being able to run backwards and jump. When he closes out, it won’t be fast, but it won’t be clumsy athletically either. Ground coverage laterally may be a bit challenging. It usually is for centers that big. (When was the last time you watched Edey do that?) But when Krivas and Edey are chasing out to a shooter and facing the opponent, they do close out surprisingly quick.

When it’s Mara, he has trouble shifting his weight. He’s clearly gained weight and strength with three years at the NCAA level, but it still needs to be more. It wasn’t that he was just sitting in the paint while Purdue guards were having a field day shooting midrange shots (Mara was practically under the basket defensively), but even Purdue bigs were able to hit him in the chest, and it was like he was stunned, and then they made shots over him in the post.

I would argue that the most recent game vs. Purdue was his worst of the year. So, I picked a video where he had a better game and Michigan won. But, Purdue was still able to exploit the same issues. They just executed it better second time around and won the most recent game.

Follow Xscapist on YT. A good mix of sample size of players and more detailed coverage.

https://www.youtube.com/@ProfessionalGlaze

This is a general group of centers that’ll float around the mid 1st to late 1st round pick. I am concerned that some players will stay in college. NIL salaries aren’t released. But, it does feel that college schools need general managers because these players are already 1st round types in a strong draft. That can command (just a guess here), almost double a late 1st contract in one season. Some players may even make more than that. So, if you were in a position to play less games, be the big man on campus, and make twice as much money, wouldn’t you stay in school? If I wasn’t a freshman, I would definitely consider it.

What’s scary is, all of these players could stay in school.

(Editing sidenote: I don’t know what on earth happened to highlighting words, phrases, and including links, but it feels like a substack glitch. When it’s resolved, I’d link accordingly)