Manchester United are going to be all right: The 2026-27 Season Preview

The Premier League season kicks off on Friday, which means we have entered Season Preview week.

I’ll be honest, it seems a little ridiculous to be writing a season preview right now. It’s not because I’m not excited for the season - I’m more excited for this season then I have been the last few years, more optimistic too. It’s not completely because Manchester United haven’t wrapped up their transfers business before opening day - that’s pretty typical for most clubs and not really a big deal.

Every summer I go back and re-read my preview from the previous year. They always make for hilarious reading because so much changes between now and when the transfer window closes just two weeks from now.

That seems even more apt for United this year than in previous years as the club has been forced to overhaul their entire midfield. That itself is a monumental task. It’s something that almost no one has ever done before.

So far what they’ve done has been good. Youri Tielemans may not be a great long term transfer but on a very team friendly deal he’ll improve the floor of the team this year. Andrey Santos arrived from Cheslea and if he performs the way he’s been playing in preseason a lot of people are going to be very happy with him.

Santos replaces the outgoing Casemiro while Tielemans is more of a replacement for Christian Eriksen, who departed last summer but was oddly not replaced.

But the club aren’t done yet. Or rather, they can’t be done yet. Those were moves that had to be done, and it’s given United a very strong first team. But United need more, not just in terms of talent, but bodies. The club only played 40 matches last year. They’re going to play at least 48 this season, and likely closer to 55.

Here we are just a few days before the season and the club might sign Lewis Hall1, while whispers have been intensifying about Adam Wharton. Those two players would massively alter the ceiling, and expectations, of this team. But here we are, right in the middle of season preview time with no idea if they’re going to be part of the setup. How are you supposed to write a season preview of Manchester United amid this landscape?

Well, let’s start with what we do know and try to piece it together from there.

There a few numbers we look at at Kwestthoughts who might be poised to shoot up the table or who finished a bit too high in the league last year.

The first is expected goal difference. Per Fotmob2 United finished third in expected points last season. If we take only the matches played under Michael Carrick, United’s expected goal difference was a wee bit worse, but still third best in the league. That bodes well for United.

Another number we look at is opposition deep passes completed, which has tended to very predictive of performance for the next season. Under Carrick United were averaging over eight deep completions allowed per game, 5th most in the league! The cutoff point for retaining a top four finish has tended to be five. That’s bad.

As I’ve said before, all the numbers under Carrick can kind of be taken with a grain of salt.

In 2022 Michael Carrick showed up at Middlesbrough and immediately had them playing in the style of play he wanted them to. His 2026 vintage of Manchester United looked nothing like those Boro teams. Not even close. Carrick publicly said the team’s current style of play wasn’t his preferred style.

Carrick never even tried to implement that style. His tactics last season were entirely focused on trying to get 90 minutes out of Casemiro every single week. Not only that, but he also needed 90 minutes out of Kobbie Mainoo because Manuel Ugarte was just not an option for him.

Casemiro isn’t here anymore. Therefore those tactics that were designed to protect him? You don’t need them anymore. That gives Carrick the freedom to have the team playing the way he wants to play, which is what makes this midfield rebuild so important. If United don’t have adequate depth in midfield, the ceiling of this team is significantly lower.

Ok, so well all agree the success of this season will hinge on whether or not the club adds another midfielder and a left back to the squad. For arguments sake, let’s say they do. That doesn’t plug all the holes United have but it plugs the biggest one. So with that taken care of, what are the keys for United to have a successful season?

Staying fit is a key for every team but staying fit at the back is going to be a real worry for United.

Luke Shaw has always been one of the most crucial players to United’s success. He’s never had consecutive 2000+ minute seasons, which is why, as per the above paragraph we’ve addressed that part of the pitch. It’s crucial for that new signing to be able to play the position well, if we’re trotting out guys that can do a job there, oh boy.

Centerbacks are a bit of a concern. Matthijs de Ligt and Lisandro Martinez are very injury prone, and Harry Maguire, who was once a rock, now falls into that camp as well. Leny Yoro needs to be better than he was last season, which is entirely plausible. He’s a young defender who is learning on the job. De Ligt is still not back from his back injury from last year but I don’t think Carrick is preferring him over Maguire anyway.

United are actually pretty well stacked here.

The conventional thinking seems to be that when everyone is fit the first choice front three will be Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko, and Bryan Mbeumo. I disagree with that. I think the depth chart looks a little closer to this.

Sesko, Mbeumo, and Cunha all hit at least 10 goals in the league last year. A tremendous return for three brand new signings. The thing was, they were never firing at the same time. Each player had a few purple patches that helped carry the team and distract you from the fact that (at least) one of the others was in a big slump.

The three combined for 32 goals last season, sharing the goalscoring responsibilities evenly. United need that total to increase this season, and the way to do that will likely come from one of them scoring a lot more, one of them doing about the same, and one scoring less.

United need a talisman at the helm of their attack, and the way to get that probably means playing these three guys together a lot less. The three players games have never really complemented each other - last season Bryan Mbeumo only scored one goal while Benjamin Sesko was on the pitch. The best version of United probably only contains two of these guys on the pitch at a given time.

That’s likely going to be Mbeumo and Cunha. Not just because Sesko has missed the entire preseason injured but even when he’s fit, he doesn’t strike me as the type of striker Carrick prefers. Sesko will start in the Champions League, which he has proven himself in. The continental game isn’t as demanding on players of Sesko’s profile. In today’s Premier League strikers have to drop deep, make runs out wide, and constantly turn up in positions that a traditional no. 9 doesn’t usually take up. When that happens, you have to be able to be useful in those positions. Mbeumo offers that. When playing as the central striker Mbeumo’s been more involved and offerred a bit better production than Sesko did under Carrick.

The wildcard is the return of Marcus Rashford.

At this point of his career Rashford isn’t good enough to start week in week out in the Premier League but he can definitely make an impact coming off the bench once games start opening up.

Back in May, Jon Makenzie wrote an article recapping the tactical changes that occured throughout the Premier League season. One prominent thing he noted was how the way teams press nowadays has changed where the space is for the attacking team. Teams used to pack the middle of the pitch, leaving the space with the back line and making it very difficult for them to find avenues to pass it forward. As teams are now pressing man to man, the space has shifted to just in behind the press but in front of the oppositions back line.

As a result, teams are now looking to find ways to play through or over these high man-to-man presses to access the vacated areas beyond. If they can do this, there is the potential to exploit this space, with your players often running at a relatively unprotected back line.

Teams are playing over the press directly to their striker, who then quickly lays the ball off to a midfielder while everyone else runs at the back line. The example he uses to illustrate his point, comes from United’s match against Fulham.

Alternatively, you might prefer wingers who can attack space in behind rather than front up a full-back from a static position and then dribble around them.

If you read the article, right when you get to this point you should be thinking “good god, that’s Marcus Rashford’s music.” This is exactly what Rashford’s strength is and it’s something currently missing from United’s repertoire. Matheus Cunha makes runs in behind here and there, but he’s still someone who prefers to drop deeper to collect the ball, turn, and run forward with it. A useful skill in it’s own right.

Rashford isn’t going to help you against low blocks.3 But when coming up against a team that wants their midfielders to press man to man high up the pitch, Rashford’s skillset is perfectly suited to that game. His games also seems very well suited to forming a partnership with Mbeumo as the two could come close to replicating the partnership Rashford used to have with Anthony Martial on the pitch. If things click here, United add another element to their attack and will be far more dangerous.

Right now United are probably among the top two teams (among the Champions League level clubs) with the widest variance as to where they can finish this season.

The title race for this season is going to be wide open. There is no dominant team in the league this year. Every team has some major flaws. There is a world where the season ends and Manchester United have the most points in the league. I don’t think we’re living in that world - it’s far more likely we’re living in the world where they have fourth most points - but that world only exists if United manage to sign another central midfielder and a left back before the window closes.

United aren’t the only team that still have business left to conduct. But teams like City, Arsenal, and Chelsea for the most part have their teams together. A late signing maybe upgrades a position here or there but we still know enough to make an educated prediction on their season.

For Manchester United the band is much larger. It’s not just about upgrading the team in certain spots, they still need to fill the team. Until they do that, we really don’t know what they’re capable of. Get the signings right and the sky is the limit. Fail to do so and the team’s ceiling quickly drops to about fourth, maybe.

Lucky for United, where they finish isn’t just about them. While they have holes in the squad that they’ll have to paper over this season, so do their rivals. In fact, their rivals may even have more.

Click here for Part II where we take a look at how United’s rivals stack up, and where we expect everyone to finish.

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