Relief for Labour: trouble for Reform

So much for the fears earlier this year that the price Labour would pay for allowing Andy Burnham back into parliament would be a Reform mayor of Greater Manchester. In the end it wasn’t even close. Labour’s Bev Craig led Reform’s Sian Astley comfortably on first preferences, and the supplementary vote system rewarded her with a greater lead after counting second preferences. Like Andy Burnham in Makerfield, Craig outperformed her support indicated by the polls.

True, her first-preference vote share fell well short of Burnham’s two years ago. Not only did he have a substantial personal vote; Labour nationally was riding high. The more relevant comparison is with the votes across Grater Manchester in the council elections three months ago. Reform then won 31 per cent of the vote and 104 of the 214 council seats up for election. Labour, with just 24 per cent, won only 35 seats. (My thanks to David Cowling for this data.)

Yesterday, on first preferences, Labour was 23 points up on its May vote; Reform was ten points down.

More broadly, the combined progressive vote was up from 52 per cent in May to 62 per cent yesterday, while the right-of-centre vote, now including Restore, was down from 41 to 37 per cent.

The supplementary vote also helped Labour. Craig gained 13,000 more votes than Astley.

This is significant. Counting the second choices of those who backed all but the top two candidates demonstrates a key feature of the system: it’s better for mainstream than extreme candidates.

Almost 170,000 voters backed one of the botto0m five candidates; 103,000 of them cast an effective second vote, that is for Labour or Reform. The notable thing is that Labour did far better among Green and Lib Dem supporters than Reform among Restore and Conservative supporters:

Lib Dem plus Green vote: 79.670; Lab 2nd preferences 58,076. Labour won 73 per cent of Green and Lib Dem first preferences

Restore plus Conservative vote: 87,290. Reform second preferences: 45,250; Reform won 52 per cent of Restore plus Con first preferences.

(The true figures will be fractionally different. Some Restore supporters will have given their second preferences to Labour, and Greens to Reform - but not enough to affect the analysis. A modest number of Conservatives will have backed Craig with their second preferences - but that underlines further the fact that preferential voting hurts extremes.)

The low turnout in Manchester – just 25 per cent – suggests that we should be cautious in interpreting yesterday’s result. However, evidence from other recent elections, as well as the opinion polls, confirm the story of Reform’s decline.

In the local elections in May last year, Reform won 41 per cent of all the seats up for election. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher estimated they their national equivalent vote share was 32 per cent.

This year, they won 29 per cent of all seats; their vote share was down five points to 27 per cent

Since this year’s May elections there have been 87 local council by-elections. (My thanks to Mark Pack for keeping track of them.) Reform have won just 19 out of 87 – a success rate of 22 per cent. Their share of total votes cast is 23 per cent. These 87 contests are not exactly representative of the whole country. But they are sufficiently spread to give a good sense of the national picture.

It’s worth noting the way Reform’s seat numbers are sensitive to vote share. At 32 per cent support last year, the party dominated the results in county after county. This year, at 27 per cent this year in vote share, they remained top dog, but their local victories were patchier.

Totalling the results of 87 by-elections since then, Reform’s vote share is down to 23 per cent. On seats, they are currently level in with the Conservatives and Lib Dem in recent by-elections, with 19 seats, which translates to 22 per cent. The trajectory of Reform’s votes tracks the trajectory of Reform’s poll rating almost precisely. Indeed, Burnham has reason to hope that his recent arrival in Downing Street has dragged Reform down further. On July 24, Labour gains two wards from Reform in Thurrock – an area that Farage was counting on to help his party break through at the next general election.

All in all, Reform’s recent trio of disappointments in the Manchester area – the contests in Gorton & Denton and Makerfield, as well Great Manchester – are not simply exceptional results from Burnhamland. The national polls are right. Reform is in trouble.