If the Election Were Held Today…

California folks—and honestly, this affects those of you elsewhere as well—if the 2026 primary were held today, we could expect two Republicans to move on to the general election, guaranteeing a Republican governor.

How did we get here?

First, what I am NOT doing is weighing in, one way or the other, on the guilt of Eric Swalwell. (And I don’t want comments about that either, because it’s my not my topic.) This is more about straight math.

A few days ago, for the first time, one Democrat (Swalwell) stood apart from the rest based on his apparent capacity to beat the Republican candidates. Prior to that, among the crowded field of Dems, the vote was too split. Most of those running have been unable to even reach 10%. None has a wide enough base of support and/or sufficient name recognition.

There’s been a lot of talk about narrowing the field so Republicans can’t come out of the primary with the two top candidates. But that has proven easier said than done. And days after it WAS done, some powers that be made sure to wipe it out.

One factor to consider now is that 25% of voters are undecided. While you might wish to assume their votes will simply peel off for whoever emerges as the top Democrat, that’s not a safe assumption. It’s just as likely, given the crowded field, that those folks don’t vote at all. Especially since we’re talking about a primary, where turnout is typically around 20% if eligible voters to begin with.

As of now, Swalwell is still in the race. However, he’s no longer an effective front runner, regardless of whether the accusations turn out to be true or false. This means none of the four top Democrats currently has the backing to beat the two Republicans: Porter, Bacerra, Steyer, and (unless he drops out) Swalwell. To be clear, even if he does drop out, none of the other three appears poised to beat the Republicans.

Maybe you’re in an anti-Democrat mood, thinking, “A Republican governor would serve them right.” Let’s be clear. We’re looking at Trump-endorsed Hilton (you don’t want to see the autocorrect I triggered by accidentally reversing the 3rd and 4th letters of his name). I could write an entire post on what life under his leadership would be like, but I’ll let you start to fill in the blanks:
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One thing is for sure, a Republican California is a Trump wet dream. With Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, etc. cheering from the wings.

Today is April 12. Ballots mail out to voters on May 4. That’s less than a month from now. We are talking about mere weeks to turn this around. Or days.

So my question is What will you do to help save a Democratic California?

Again, not entertaining commentary about Eric Swalwell; we have plenty of other spaces for that. What I would like to know is how you think we can fix this in the very short time we’ve got left.