Trump's forever wars

Below is my latest column in the Orange County Register and for the Southern California News Group. It went online there Friday morning. I wrote, “What’s also not being shown is the other side: Iran attacking not just shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but America’s bases in the Middle East. It’s hard to find good information.”

I included links to two stories, in AP and the New York Times.

About that time, three American troops were being killed in Jordan. Since then, the media finally are giving greater coverage to Iran’s response to Trump’s attacks. Iran turned out to be a lot tougher than Trump thought. It’s not Venezuela. Now Trump is stuck in a forever war — and another in Ukraine. He’s stuck and can’t get out — and we’re stuck right next to him.

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By John Seiler

Although I don’t have a TV, on YouTube or X sometimes the algorithm pops up videos of Sean Hannity, Jesse Watters and other Fox News hosts. They glory in what’s called, excuse the phrase, “war porn.” While boosting President Donald Trump’s Iran War, they show videos of vehicles, boats and buildings blowing up. Trump himself puts such videos on Truth Social.

Even if this were a “just war,” which it’s not, this coverage hides the fact that a lot of people—many of them civilians—are dying. It’s ghoulish and I turn the videos off right away.

What’s also not being shown is the other side: Iran attacking not just shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but America’s bases in the Middle East. It’s hard to find good information. But AP reported July 9, “Sirens sounding at least three times in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters,” with missiles also targeting Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. All house U.S. bases.

On July 16, The New York Times reported, “The Kuwaiti military said it was dealing with a new Iranian drone attack.” Official reports claim all incoming drones and missiles were intercepted. But given the fog of war and the tendency of governments to lie, can we believe them?

Meanwhile, after Trump at Versailles signed the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, the price of Brent crude oil dropped below $70 a barrel, headed toward the $60 prewar price. That looked likely to help him and Republicans in the Nov. 3 election. The renewed war, effectively shutting the strait again, sent the price up to $86 a barrel by Friday morning.

Fortune energy editor Jordan Blum wrote July 12, after the MOU was signed, “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz never rebounded to even one-third of its typical volumes.” Shipping and insurance costs also doubled. And the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1983.

Global production also dropped from Ukrainian attacks on Russian production. The Financial Times reported July 5 those attacks were 11 times greater than a year earlier. U.S. intelligence was key in guiding the drones and helping them avoid Russian defenses. So much for Trump’s 2024 campaign promise to end that war “in 24 hours.” He just shifted the cost to the Europeans.

Worse is what’s next. In a July 14 interview on Fox News, Trump refused to rule out a ground invasion. He added, “But we have other people who will do the ground campaign for us,” not specifying who.

USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker on July 13 located the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, based at Camp Pendleton, still in the Arabian Sea. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit was in the Indian Ocean. And a month ago, Military.com reported, “82nd Airborne Deployment to Israel Went Unannounced.”

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Next up: Cuba. CBS News reported July 16, senior Pentagon officials are examining military options, “including an Army-led air assault involving thousands of U.S. soldiers to be carried out by the 101st Airborne Division.”

But in 1962 the Cuban Missile Crisis, which nearly led to nuclear war, ended with the Soviet Union/Russia removing its missiles from the island. In return, President John F. Kennedy, in an Oct. 27, 1962 letter, gave Premier Nikita Khrushchev “assurances against an invasion of Cuba.” Of course, Trump doesn’t care about international law, or any law, let alone “assurances.”

Knocking off Cuba might be as easy as Trump’s kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But it might not be. With Russia’s help, Cuba has been preparing for a U.S. invasion since the 1959 revolution.

Trump won two elections promising no “forever wars.” Now he’s presiding over two of them, and possibly three. We soon could see hundreds of our troops coming home from Iran and Cuba in body bags.

One constant in Trump’s statements and actions is an emphasis on small-scale tactics with no geostrategy. But the world now is tightly knit together. Iran and Russia are working together, and both with China and its giant manufacturing and technology industries.

It’s disgusting how Trump broke the peace promises that brought him so many supporters, including me.

And it’s frightening to think he has 30 more months in office.