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Johnrraymond

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Germany Has a NAZI Problem in the Shape of Mr. Merz

There is an effort in parts of the Western policy conversation to rebrand territorial concessions as “realism.” It is being framed as pragmatic, inevitable, even responsible. It is none of those things. It is, in fact, a NAZI-adjacent dead end. The post-World War II order was not built on optimism. It was built on hard lessons. Chief among them: territorial conquest by force cannot be legitimized…

Dear David Packman, The Words of an Opportunistic Grifter Mean Nothing to Me - And They Should Mean Nothing to Anyone

There is a particular kind of analytical failure that has become common in anti-Trump media, and it is more dangerous than many of the people committing it seem to realize. It happens when a commentator becomes so eager to score a rhetorical point against President Trump that he lowers his own evidentiary standards and starts treating garbage as signal. That is what happened in David Packman’s…

Remote Diagnosis, and the Confession of a Small Man

This essay requires a confession from me. It is necessary to the question before us. It is necessary for the reader is to understand how I know what I am talking about here. I am not about to confess to some amateur diagnosis of President Trump from afar. That would be both unserious and contrary to the point. The confession is more humiliating than that, as it concerns my own smallness. But…

The Eviction of Civic Trust

It may be hard to believe that, as someone focused on the strategic questions of our time, I try never to talk about our military men and women in simplifying terms. It is not because I fear pissing off those who voted for President Trump. It is because, by and large, those who have more to lose, those who are doing more than me to protect the project, do not need me telling them what to think or…

From Epstein to Gas Prices: How the Pump May Finish What Conscience Could Not

In a morally serious country, the Epstein matter would already have been enough. It would have been enough to trigger public revulsion, elite panic, prosecutorial urgency, and a sustained demand for truth. A society with functioning civic reflexes would not need a second injury to awaken itself to the first. It would not wait for the price of fuel to rise before deciding that the protection of…

The Religious and the Nonreligious Among Us Agree, Do Not Invoke God in Vain

Trump as a doctor? My aching ass! The problem is not that President Trump’s latest AI image was merely tasteless. The problem is that it crossed a line that both believers and nonbelievers should recognize. A political leader who seeks to drape himself in the aura of a savior while embodying none of the savior’s virtues is not engaging in harmless spectacle. He is attempting a moral theft. He is…

What Kurzin’s Warning and the Raymond Method Say About Axis Churn

In my last piece on Orbán’s defeat , I argued that the right way to understand Putin’s axis-aligned network was not by counting titles, but by counting utility. On that model, if each major node began the post-invasion period at full Lukashenko-level utility to Putin, the network started at 40 and now sits at 20.7, a degradation of roughly 48.25 percent. That was the milestone: not total collapse,…

The Meaning of Orbán’s Defeat: Putin’s Axis-Aligned Network Has Reached an Important Milestone

Viktor Orbán’s defeat matters for reasons larger than Hungary. On April 12, 2026, Orbán conceded after sixteen years in power, ending the rule of one of the Kremlin’s most useful embedded allies inside the European Union. He was not just another nationalist head of government. He was a veto point, an obstructive node, a man whose value to Moscow lay in his ability to slow, blur, and fracture…

The Iran War Quagmire: From the Metaphysics of the Strait of Hormuz Opening "Naturally" to the Physics of Economic Harm

There is a certain kind of lie that powerful men tell when reality has slipped the leash. They do not always deny the facts outright. Sometimes they simply speak as though the facts will soon rearrange themselves in their favor. That is the metaphysics of the Strait of Hormuz "opening naturally." President Trump did not need to use the philosophical word for the concept to be his. In one of his…

Senator Fetterman and the Ass-Stroke Theory

There are moments in politics when old expressions stop sounding figurative and begin to feel exact. Fetterman presents one of those moments. He appears to have suffered more than a regular stroke last year, but one that has led to rectal-cranial inversion, an ass-stroke if you will. Since then his public reasoning has emerged from the wrong end of his body. That is the best available explanation…