Understanding Trumpers
WSJ oped and substack post .
The Grumpy Economist
John Cochrane's blog
Latest posts
Change, demographic and intellectual
New post over at grumpy-economist.com substack
Aftermath
Aftermath. Reflections on the Claudine Gay affair. Over at Substack.
Fiscal Narratives for US Inflation
An essay on substack ; interpreting US inflation history via fiscal theory, prepared as comments for a session at the AEA meetings.
Writing lesson, comment on Tom Friedman
Don't piss people off unless you have to. Over at Substack.
Argue Honestly in the Claudine Gay Affair
Post over at Substack . Firing Gay over plagiarism will not fix Harvard.
Conti on the future of universities
A new post over at Substack, a nice essay by Greg Conti on the future of universities.
A Kind Word for the Fed
This is my first post over at Substack. Follow me here and let me know if it isn't working. The post is in praise of interest on reserves and abundant reserves, with (of course) some suggestions for improvements.
Politics by Law
Colorado's Supreme Court kicks Trump off the ballot (WSJ). I wrote earlier forecasting constitutional crisis with next election. Legal chaos is starting right on schedule. Summary: Both sides are casting their opponents as illegitimate. That justifies profound norm-breaking behavior. Political battles are being fought in the courts, so control of the courts and the judicial system now becomes…
Bond risk premiums -- certainty found and lost again
This is a second post from a set of comments I gave at the NBER Asset Pricing conference in early November at Stanford. Conference agenda here . My full slides here . First post here , on new-Keynesian models I commented on "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia" by François Gourio and Phuong Ngo. The paper was about bond premiums. Commenting made me realize that I thought I understood the…
Time for a new (?) theory of regulation
What's the basic story of economic regulation? Econ 101 courses repeat the benevolent dictator theory of regulation: There is a "market failure," natural monopoly, externality, or asymmetric information. Benevolent regulators craft optimal restrictions to restore market order. In political life "consumer protection" is often cited, though it doesn't fit that economic structure. Then "Chicago…
A Vision for the University of Pennsylvania
A group of faculty at Penn have written A Vision for a New Future of the University of Pennsylvania at https://pennforward.com/ . They encourage signatures, even if you're not associated with Penn. I signed. Big picture: Universities stand at a crossroads. Do universities choose pursuit of knowledge, the robust open and uncomfortable debate that requires; excellence and meritocracy, even if as in…
Sociology Meetings
When Jukka Savolainen wrote about it in the Wall Street Journal I couldn't quite believe it, so I had to go look. Indeed, on the website of the American Sociological Association describing its 2024 annual meeting we have the official "theme" of the meeting "..sociology as a form of liberatory praxis: an effort to not only understand structural inequities, but to intervene in socio-political…
New-Keynesian models, a puzzle of scientific sociology
This post is from a set of comments I gave at the NBER Asset Pricing conference in early November at Stanford. Conference agenda here . My full slides here . There was video, but sadly I took too long to write this post and the NBER took down the conference video. I was asked to comment on "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia" by François Gourio and Phuong Ngo. It's a very nice clean…
The Income Tax Paradox
The Supreme Court is hearing a case with profound implications for the income tax. WSJ editorial here and good commentary from Ilya Shapiro here . This issue is naturally contorted into legalisms: What the heck does "apportioned" mean? How is "income" defined legally? I won't wade into that. What are the economic issues? What's the right thing to do here, leaving aside legalisms? Three general…
FTPL news: discount and Economist list
Just in time for the holidays, the perfect stocking stuffer -- if you have really big stockings. 30% discount on Fiscal Theory of the Price Level until June 30 2024. And Fiscal Theory makes the Economist's list of best books for 2023 .
Pro Dollarization
With President Milei's election in Argentina, dollarization is suddenly on the table. I'm for it. Here's why. Why not? A standard of value Start with "why not?'' Dollarization, not a national currency, is actually a sensible default. The dollar is the US standard of value. We measure length in feet, weight in pounds, and the value of goods in dollars. Why should different countries use different…
Sunstein redefines "Liberal"
Cass Sunstein has a lovely New York Times essay that tries to give us back the word "Liberal." I hope it works. "Liberal" from "Libertas" means, at bottom, freedom. In the 19th century, "liberals" were devoted to personal, economic, and increasing social freedom from government restraint. "Conservatives" wanted to maintain aristocratic privileges, and government interventions in the traditional…
FTPL at SEA
Sunday Nov 19 6-7 PM I will be giving the "Association Lecture" at the Southern Economics Association conference in New Orleans. The topic naturally is "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level." If you're curious, and will be at the conference, stop by. I now have a pretty good condensed talk about fiscal theory!
Lukianoff and Schlott on Cancellation
Last week I was honored to be moderator for a discussion with Greg Lukianoff and Rikki Schlott on their new book " Canceling the American Mind " at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco. Link here , if the embed above doesn't work Here are my questions. I shared them with Greg and Rickki ahead of time, so the actual questions are a bit shorter. But this may give you some interesting background,…
Prices vs. inflation and a mortgage puzzle
Mickey Levy's excellent WSJ oped leaves some thoughts. Inflation has fallen, though I still suspect it may get stuck around 3-4%. But prices "are 18.9% higher than its [their] pre-pandemic level." And some important prices have risen even more. "Rental costs continue to rise in lagged response to the 46.1% surge in home prices." Those who are taking a victory lap about the end of inflation (the…
Evergreen expectations
A lovely plot from the always interesting Torsten Slok. The graph shows the actual federal funds rate, together with the path of "expected" funds rate implicit in fed funds futures market prices. (Roughly speaking the futures contract is a bet on where the Fed funds rate will be at various dates in the future. If you want to bloviate about what the Fed will do, it's easy to put your money where…
Leonhardt on investment
David Leonhardt's pean to investment in the Sunday NY Times Magazine starts well: A cross-country trip today typically takes more time than it did in the 1970s. The same is true of many trips within a region or a metropolitan area....Door to door, cross-country journeys often last 10 or even 12 hours. Compare this stagnation with the progress of the previous century. The first transcontinental…
Bhattacharya on Covid censorship
A week ago Jay Bhattacharya gave a great talk at the weekly Stanford Classical Liberalism workshop. ( Link in case the embed doesn't work.) He detailed the story of government+media Covid censorship, along with the dramatic injunction in the Missouri v. Biden case. The discovery in that case alone, detailing how the administration used the threat of arbitrary regulatory retaliation to get tech…
Political prisoner dilemma
This is a draft oped. It didn't make it as events in Israel are now consuming attention. But sooner or later we need to elect a president and live with the results. I went light on the economics, but you can see the basic game theory of the analysis. It amplifies some comments I made on Goodfellows. **** If, as it appears, the election will come down to Trump vs. Biden, the US is headed for a…