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Why do people continue to work for management consulting firms? I used to, so I don t mean this as random sniping at other people s life choices. I ve been reflecting on how we reason about the risk of being involved in wrongdoing in our work. I started thinking about this after listening to Jonathan Parry s talk [ ] The post Deciding to do morally risky work: management consulting and the…
David Stainforth argued in a pair of co-authored articles in 2007 that climate models were so uncertain no individual model should be taken seriously as a predictor of a single event (in that case, a temperature rise). This post explores the arguments presented, and their applicability to hurricane science. Stainforth, Allen, et al. present an [ ] The post Non-discountable envelopes of possibility…
A major approach – perhaps the major approach – to the treatment of models in an ensemble is via skill scores. These measure the accuracy of a prediction when compared to an observation. The motivating question behind their development is this: how can one compare different probabilistic forecasts? It is surprising that there is no [ ] The post Against using skill scores to evaluate climate models…