keep on truckin

August 17…)

in the news

The Japanese 2 year yield hit the highest level in 31 years in Tokyo overnight. USD/JPY is unchanged. Copper is in backwardation on the LME invigorating a squeeze narrative that has been around since Currie worked at Goldman. Copper on the Comex is a touch higher in quiet trading.

Goldman says the FOMC’s ardor for rate hikes has dimmed. “After two months of materially softer jobs and inflation data, it’s hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes,” Goldman’s Hatzius wrote, referring to Fed officials who vote on interest rates this year.

It is inconceivable the word “hike” is still in the media lexicon, in my opinion. July FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Other than that… “The largest supply disruption in history” dropped $93 billion in profits into oil majors’ lap (oilprice.com) and the 3/2/1 crack is making all time highs.

in the markets… lots of charts today

I had to dig deep in my thesaurus to come up with words to describe technical activity on this S&P chart. Circa 75 trillion in US market cap has been put into an induced coma to protect it from reality and, wonder of wonders, it’s working!

According to FINRA data there are three dollars of margin debt for every one dollar of cash in all US brokerage accounts… what can go wrong?

The dollar index is slipping quietly lower. Just following up on the down wiggle that went into force on July 28 the day before the FOMC decision not to hike.

A down wiggle is a primary high (A) followed by a reaction high (B) followed by a third high exceeding B but not A and closing below B.

The Yen and the S&P must be buying their narcotics from the same pusher.

As I type, silver is $0.75 higher on light volume and moderate technical development. I’ll repeat what I said on Friday.