evening wrap. august 20

I would say the highlights in NY on Thursday were threefold:

1… a multitudinous chorus of mockery ladled on Scott Bessent when long bonds retraced their gains from yesterday. Here’s a typical post, one of many like it: “Stocks Tumble, Yields & Oil Jump, Gold & Bitcoin Surge After Bessent Intervention Fails (Zero Hedge).”

And this (my edits): JPMorgan slams Bessent’s Bond Market Intervention says: “Market will view Treasury as lacking Credibility.”

2… Bitcoin extended yesterday’s rally with equal range extension today and…

3… Walmart was down ca 10%. WMT is one of 22 other stocks in the DOW 30 index that was down 700. WMT’s forward guidance was soft and same store sales disappointing (earnings beat estimates).

in the markets

A bearish divergence in Dow futures noted on Tuesday evening is confirmed today with DMI (Directional Movement Index) red bar on rising volume. The all time high on August 4 was a 4 mm call option 0DTE orgy and prices have been lower every hour… every day since.

NDX futures are mildly negative, open interest is flat, volume is flat and prices are eroding. Most of the major negative narratives have lost their impact with age but there’s nothing good to say about AI lately... nothing. Next chart, please.