In the 5th District, the Primary Is the Real Election

By Grant Fredericks — The LeClaire Report

Michael Baumgartner is competing against twelve challengers for one of two ballot positions for the November general election. A single challenger will emerge to face the incumbent after the August 4 primary.¹ As President Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to their lowest levels of his second term,² the 2026 congressional election is likely to produce the most significant opportunity for Democrats in over twenty years. But will Democrats show up or will they leave the decision of who might represent this district, and potentially be the deciding vote on important legislative issues, to a relatively small number of politically active voters?

Statistically, only about four in ten registered voters in Washington’s 5th District will decide which two candidates move on to the general election.³ More troubling still is that between 70,000 and 90,000 residents are not yet registered to vote.⁴ If they fail to register, their voices will remain silent.

Those non-voters, both registered and unregistered, are our neighbors, our co-workers, the people two doors down. In Washington’s primary system, their electoral absence gives an unequal voice to a minority. When turnout is this low, a challenger needs only one vote more than any of the other eleven competitors to claim the second position on the ballot.⁵ If Democratic-leaning voters stay home, that thin margin can hand the general election right back to Baumgartner.

The Real Contest Is Happening Now

The August primary is approaching quickly, but it is not what many people believe they are watching. Most picture a Democrat facing Baumgartner in the fall. What is actually being decided is a scramble among a dozen challengers for one seat, settled by a slice of the electorate that underrepresents the needs of our district.

That is where you come in. Washington does not register voters by party. The turnout figures show a large pool of people who stay home. Each of us knows like-minded family, friends, co-workers who sit out the primary election, either because they don’t fully understand the stakes or because they feel their vote won’t count. This is exactly why the work belongs to each of us and not to a pollster.

What You Can Do Before August 4

The timing is tight, and it is exact. Ballots were mailed on July 17 and are already in mailboxes across the district. If someone you know is not yet registered, they still can be. Online and mail registrations must be received by Monday, July 27. After that, an eligible resident can still register and vote in person, all the way through 8 p.m. on Election Day, August 4, at a county elections office or voting center. A completed ballot must be postmarked by August 4 or placed in an official drop box by 8 p.m. that day. If it goes by mail, send it several days early so a late postmark does not disqualify it.⁶

The voter margin that will make a difference for the 5th District this year will come from the people who already lean your way and would otherwise stay home. Between now and August 4, find two or three of them. Turning them out is what creates the opening for a Democrat to reach November.

Endnotes

1. Washington Secretary of State, Amended 2026 Certification of Candidates to the Primary Election, May 12, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/Amended%202026%20Certification%20of%20Candidates%20to%20Primary%20Election.pdf. Washington Secretary of State, Washington State Primary Election Fact Sheet, August 4, 2026, July 10, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-07/PrimaryElectionFacts2026.pdf

2. Gallup, Presidential Approval Ratings, Donald Trump, https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx. Reuters/Ipsos, Trump approval ties lowest of term, June 23, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/few-us-say-iran-war-was-worth-it-trump-approval-ties-lowest-term-reutersipsos-2026-06-23/

3. Washington Secretary of State, August 2, 2022 Primary Voter Turnout, https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20220802/turnout.html. Washington Secretary of State, August 7, 2018 Primary Voter Turnout, https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20180807/turnout.html

4. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey profile, Congressional District 5, Washington, https://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US5305-congressional-district-5-wa/. Washington Secretary of State, Understanding Voter Registration Data, https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-technology/understanding-voter-registration-data

5. Washington Secretary of State, Current Election Information, https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voters/helpful-information/current-election-information. Washington Secretary of State, Amended 2026 Certification of Candidates to the Primary Election, May 12, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/Amended%202026%20Certification%20of%20Candidates%20to%20Primary%20Election.pdf

6. Washington Secretary of State, Washington State Primary Election Fact Sheet, August 4, 2026, July 10, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-07/PrimaryElectionFacts2026.pdf