By Grant Fredericks — The LeClaire Report
Independent Nate Powell did something no other candidate in the contested 2026 WA-5 primary race could do; he built a coalition that united progressives and traditional Democrats, and he pulled in a significant number of disenchanted Republicans around the singular cause to unseat incumbent Michael Baumgartner.
Although Powell fell behind Carmela Conroy, the election trajectory he influenced highlights a movement away from the Republican incumbent in WA-5 for the first time in over thirty-two years.
Republican Dominance Begins to Erode
Republicans won 59.6 percent of the WA-5 primary vote in 2022 and 61 percent in the 2024 primary. This August Republicans won just 46.9 percent of the vote, with a weakened Representative Michael Baumgartner as the only Republican on the ballot.
The Republican incumbent lost the party’s share in all twelve counties in the district, by roughly the same margin in each. Formerly deep-red Franklin and Lincoln counties lost as much Republican support by percentage as did Spokane and Whitman counties. Independent candidates took 20.6 percent of the district vote this year, and about two-thirds of that came out of the Republican vote. In Franklin County, the reddest in the district, Democrats won 12.8 percent in 2024 and held their own in 2026, maintaining the same 12.8 percent. But the Republican vote in Franklin County was down 8.4 points, while Independents gained exactly 8.4 points. The shift away from an incumbent whose legislative record is tied so closely to an unpopular president is clear.
The move away from Republican dominance in the district is also supported by the Cook Partisan Voting Index rating. During Trump’s presidencies, Cook’s rating of WA-5 has fallen from a R+8 to a R+5.
Conroy Earns a Clear Mandate
Despite the independent surge, the district winner on primary night to advance to the general election was Carmela Conroy. She entered this year’s primary as the leading Democrat from 2024 and emerged with something much stronger: a decisive mandate. Facing the same number of Democratic opponents as she did two years ago, Conroy won nearly sixty percent of the Democratic vote. Her nearest Democratic rival finished with less than a quarter of her total. In 2024, Conroy narrowly led the Democratic field. In 2026, she dominated it.
Keeping His Word
On election night, before the outcome was certain to most, Powell spoke decisively. He told those gathered in the firefighters’ union hall that, if Carmela Conroy advanced, he would do everything he could to help her win in whatever capacity she believed would be most helpful. He was the first to commit; other candidates quickly followed.
When the count confirmed his impressive third-place finish six days later, he fulfilled that promise without hesitation. In a statement thanking the volunteers, campaign staff, family and friends, and the members of organized labor who built his campaign, Powell publicly urged his supporters to unite behind Conroy. He wrote that he trusts her to stand up for working families and to “fight for our community in Congress.” Then he encouraged everyone who supported his message to donate both their time and money to Conroy for Congress.
More Than a Concession
That appeal carried unusual weight. Powell had spent months building a coalition that extended well beyond the Democratic base. His supporters were not all traditional Democratic voters. Yet he asked them to unite behind the Democratic nominee because he believed defeating Michael Baumgartner mattered more than protecting his own political identity. He sought nothing in return, attached no conditions, and made no attempt to preserve distance from the campaign he had just joined. He simply kept the promise he had made on election night.
In the end, Powell did not ask his supporters to remember his campaign. He asked them to continue it, writing that “the fight continues, and today, it moves forward with Carmela Conroy.” He closed the statement simply: “In Solidarity.”
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