With global crude supplies to refineries truncated for the past 5 months, the world is becoming increasingly desperate for diesel fuel supply.
Today, the spread in price between the price of a barrel of diesel vs a barrel of crude oil hit an all time high in the US over $97 /barrel (bbl) before pulling back this evening after US markets closed.
When energy markets are well supplied, this diesel crack spread (price spread) differential typically runs between 15 and 25 USD/bbl.
Figure 1 - Daily US Crack Spread (Diesel vs Crude) 2020 to present; data source: TradingView.com
US Energy Information Agency (EIA) data through to Friday August 7, 2026 showed US exports increasing to 1.93 million (M) bbl/day which is also an all time high for US diesel exports.
Figure 2 - Daily US Distillate (Diesel) Exports 2010 to present; data source: US EIA
Most recent data show US SPR crude storage drawn down to 298.7M bbl that is below the 300M bbl limit that experts warned would result in permanent storage cavern damage and see draw rate limitations on the remaining SPR crude stocks.
While the weekly SPR crude draw rose to over 6M bbl on the week to August 7, the 3 week moving average of crude draw at 4.25M bbl/wk remains down 46% from the peak weekly draw in May 2026 even as the world’s crude and petroleum markets see increasing shortage.
Figure 3 - Weekly SPR Crude Draw - Weekly And 3 Week Moving Average To August 7, 2026; data source: US EIA
On August 10, 2026, senior Iranian officials reported that Iran would not engage in further negotiations with the US for the remainder of President Trump’s term through January 2029 and would insist on a list of demands being met including a toll for ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s toll has important ramifications for the world’s currency and financial markets. It is clear the Iran cannot use US or European currencies and banking systems to collect the toll. This leaves the Chinese RMB or yuan and China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as the leading candidate for collecting such a toll.
Some have extolled the virtues of using the RMB/yuan for trade settlement given that China’s currency can be converted from fiat currency to gold for export in banking centers such as Hong Kong.
However, the RMB/yuan is merely another leveraged fiat currency that is centrally controlled by the CCP and China’s bond, banking, and financial markets have well known impairments that are heading toward crisis. CCP fiat is not a realistic medium or long term solution.
Use of RMB / ‘CCP bucks’ for toll payment can be accomplished however there is a strong practical inducement for Iran, or any other recipient of RMB, to rapidly convert these receipts into an historically stable monetary asset (gold and silver). And Iran’s culture also has a very strong affinity for gold and silver.
Use of distributed warehouses and blockchain tools can today allow this physical payment form to be rapidly effected.
It appears that initial Iranian toll collection in fiat currency will likely transition into toll collection in physical specie in a very short period that will likely also start to migrate throughout the Gulf into oil payment itself in gold and perhaps also silver.
This sets Iran directly in the cross-hairs of the City of London banking center that has operated a promissory note gold and silver price fixing system for so long. The WEF Globalists aren’t likely too pleased with the direct gold/silver payment concept either - they’ve got Marxist poverty and CBDC to sell and that is already tough sledding.
There are serious issues with all centrally planned fiat currencies and the math on their demise is simple.
On Monday August 10 this past week, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul came out with an announcement saying he was at Fort Knox that day and he saw that the 147M oz. of US Treasury gold held at Fort Knox was “present and accounted for.”
Rand Paul does not likely have the strength, speed, assay skills, and statistical analysis capability to factually make such a statement after a one day visit.
The coincident August 10th statement by Iran that negotiations between Iran and Team Trump were over for the rest of Trump’s term, along with the implications for gold as bond yields ran higher that day, is interesting.
Best regards,
David Jensen
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