With Less Immigration, Urban Growth Slowed in 2025
Plus, revisions to 2022-2024 local population estimates were unusually large.
Jed Kolko
Jed is senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and senior advisor at the JPMC Institute. He recently served as Under Secretary for Economic Affairs at the U.S. Commerce Department.
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Latest posts
Four takeaways from the new Census population estimates
Immigration declined dramatically. Census estimates now align with other government estimates. The 2026 Current Population Survey population base will be adjusted downward.
Requiem for a Jobs Report
Today marks the second missing jobs report. Damage is piling up
New Immigration Estimates Are Not the Last Word
Prepare for another year of uncertainty and confusion over the rate of net US immigration.
Your Guide to Immigration and the Jobs Report
Focus on (1) unemployment rates for the native- and foreign-born and (2) job growth in immigrant-reliant industries versus other industries. Ignore pretty much everything else.
Updated: Breakeven rate for monthly payroll growth
This update incorporates the July 2025 jobs report, released August 1.
No, Native-Born Employment Has Not Soared
A newly viral chart showing native-born employment levels is a multiple-count data felony. Focus instead on the native-born unemployment rate.
Welcoming myself to Substack
I am moving my very occasional personal writings from my Wordpress site to this Substack.