A recent WNYT/Survey USA poll has the Democratic candidate, Blake Gendebien, leading in the NY-21 congressional race, something we have not seen in these parts since Democrat Bill Owens held the seat from 2009 to 2015.
August 22, 2026 ~ Vol. 70 No one was more surprised than I was when a poll was published last week showing NY-21 Democratic congressional candidate Blake Gendebien ahead of the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Anthony Constantino by four percentage points. The Albany Times Union interpreted the results:
Times Union Constantino condemns new poll showing Dem leading
Results reveal Gendebien ahead by four points in 21st district
By Alexander MacDougall ~ Staff Writer ~ August 15, 2026
ALBANY — A new poll indicates Democrat Blake Gendebien has a slight lead over Republican Anthony Constantino in the race for New York’s 21st Congressional District seat, a result that Constantino’s campaign has strongly disputed.
I say that no one was more surprised, but in truth I suspect that Gendebien was and I am sure that Constantino was. Predictably, Anthony Constantino, the firebrand Republican candidate and Sticker-Mule CEO from Amsterdam, called the numbers hogwash. More specifically he called on the Federal Communication Commission to investigate the poll sponsor’s “collusion with the Democratic Party”, which he also stated “should be illegal”. Constantino has never been described as being understated but his comments actually did not rise to the levels he has used in the recent past: referring to the news media as “scumbags” or calling his Republican primary opponent, Robert Smullen a “fucking coward” (notably, in a campaign video!) Isn’t it amazing how Trump has normalized this type of behavior? Alex DeGrasse, formerly Elise Stefanik’s spokesperson (or attack dog, depending upon who you are talking to), is now Constantino’s spokesman and chief campaign strategist. He called the poll fraudulent and a scam. Of course he did. I’m guessing that they were both displeased with the results.
One poll does not an election outcome make, but I am coming around to the possibility that it could happen. My Democratic friends in NY-21, on the other hand, are suddenly more optimistic than JETS fans in August.
Past posts on Blake Gendebien and NY-21:
I have covered the voter math and the recent election history of this district in prior essays, and the registration mountain that Gendebien has to climb to win in November is still very steep. In fact, many observers consider the lopsided Republican registration advantage too much to overcome which is why NY-21 is considered solidly “Red”. Unless….
According to the NYS Board of Elections’ most recent head count, as of February there were approximately 79,000 more active Republicans registered in the district than Democrats. (205,573, vs.126,514) Add nine thousand active Conservatives who will likely lean Republican. Unaffiliated voters total 125,614, including me, and swaying those voters is the object of the exercise for Gendebien. In the poll that was released last week, Gendebien was up 19 points (47% / 28%) among those independent voters. He does have a few other things trending in his favor at this writing.
Constantino is a self described Trump acolyte and has been since 2016. This is the guy who constructed a “Vote for Trump” sign on the roof of his office building, just to get the President’s attention. It worked. Trump endorsed Constantino in the NY-21 Republican primary during which he ousted the choice of the Republican committee establishment, conservative NYS Assemblyman Robert Smullen. This did not and does not sit well with many of my “political” Republican friends in NY-21, who knew Smullen personally and liked him. Add to that simmering resentment Trump’s current approval rating which is now lower than any President’s polls in recent history. Importantly for Democrats, Trump’s abysmal approval ratings are tied to the state of the economy, particularly tariffs and inflation, both of which are hitting particularly hard here in the north country. Canadian trade and Canadian tourism is nowhere more important than here along the border with Canada. Trump’s talk of Canada as a 51st state and his assessment of punitive tariffs have resulted in a decline of 25% in Canadian tourism to the US and retaliatory boycotts of US goods, most noticeably distilled products. Gendebien wants to see an end to the antagonism with our neighbors to the north, whereas Constantino supports the President’s tariffs and hard ball methods as good “negotiating tactics”. (If I were advising Gendebien, this—consumer prices, US - Canada relations and tariff “policy”, such as it is—would be my primary talking points over these last ten weeks until the election.)
Lastly, Gendebien benefits from the fact that his opponent is manifestly unqualified and unsuited to represent the district, with the temperament and tactics of a pit bull in a cage match, which, not surprisingly, is something that Constantino actually enjoys doing. (His CV includes a stint as a martial arts fighter.) I’m sure that Democrats have no illusions of convincing 40,000 mostly conservative Republicans to vote for a Democrat, even if he is a likable local farmer, but a Gendebien victory does not require that to happen. All they need to happen in November is for enough Republicans to be sufficiently upset with the candidate who was chosen for them by Donald J. Trump, that they stay home or pass by that race on the ballot. That is the Democrats’ game plan.
I have the same three criteria for supporting any candidate for office.
Are they qualified?
Do they share my values?
Are they an honorable person?
In case of a tie—which one would I rather have a beer with.
Sometimes the choice is hard. Sometimes it’s easy. There will be no need for a tie-breaker in this contest. Six months ago I would have given Gendebien a 10% (read, slim to none) chance of winning this election. Given the specific factors that are influencing NY-21 right now —gas and food prices, Canadian relations, coupled with Trump’s low approval rating, Constantino’s slavish loyalty to Trump—and Constantino’s distasteful gutter politics—I’ll raise the probability to 40%.
I do not get worked up over any one individual poll. On Thursday NYT-13 released another NY-21 poll, conducted by JL Partners, showing Constantino up by 10 points. That polling company is a right of center, British, political advisory group. Nate Silver gives them a B- rating for predictive accuracy.
Compared to the vicissitudes of polling surveys, I personally put more faith in the time honored practice of gauging voter sentiment by a much more accurate measure—campaign yard signs. I conducted my own survey last week, when my wife and I had occasion to drive from Schroon Lake to St. Lawrence University in Canton, two and a half hours away. We counted yard signs for the entire trip. We drove west from the town of Schroon through Minerva, and then Newcomb, northwest through Long Lake and then through Childwold and along the Raquette River through Colton and on to our destination in Canton, the NCPR studios near St. Lawrence University. We counted campaign yard signs all along the way, and then took a ten minute detour to Potsdam to check out last Friday’s Adirondack Auction at Blanchard’s.
I do not include “highway signs” in this survey, the clusters of campaign signs that you see at every Northway entrance. Yard signs displayed at someone’s home are different. It is a commitment. Yard signs require ownership—a personal endorsement—this is my candidate. Highway signs may get more exposure, but as a gauge of voter support yard signs are more closely correlated to votes.
During our trip it became immediately apparent that the tone and tenor of our partisan politics in our very red NY-21 have changed dramatically since the last election. Gone are the Trump banners hanging from houses or plastered to barn walls with clusters of tattered American flags. Also strikingly apparent was the dearth of any yard signs when compared to past election cycles. There were a few in each town, but a dozen, not a hundred. Are people disengaged, or despondent about their options? We counted Blake Gendebien campaign signs for the entire length of our journey—through three counties, scattered with candidates for local court races and town positions. The last leg of the trip was through St. Lawrence County, farm country and admittedly, Blake’s “home turf”, but the disparity in the sign count was striking. During the entire length of our 122 mile trip, we saw absolutely no Constantino yard signs. None. Zero. Nada.
Perhaps my 40% probability of a Gendebien victory is too low? We’ll know in 73 days.
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