The Just World Fallacy

A common misconception I see when it comes to the conservative outlook is that “winning” in some aspect or event or whatever metric they determine is seen as an inherently moral thing to do. They suffer from what is known as the Just World Fallacy – the world is just and the folks who “win” are winning because they are deserving; and the inverse goes for those that are “losing”. It is a fallacy because it doesn’t overturn any rocks to see the reasonings behind WHY these things happen, they are just accepted as just without exanimation.

Poor? Addicted? Unhealthy? Suffering? Well, that is clearly your fault for some vague reason, maybe you should pray about it. We don’t know why or what or when or how, but it’s somehow your fault, otherwise you wouldn’t be suffering. Everything is Just In The World and the suffering we may experience is simply because we are either deserving or it is a set up for a future success in some vague future.

You will find these ideas overlay really well on top of a lot of religious beliefs that place virtue on the faithful and vice on the faithless.

This is where religions often come in. Aha, you got that job offer because you’re blessed! Oh, bad luck with that health diagnosis, you must be cursed. From sporting event outcomes to anthropologic and sociological outcomes, the argument is often the same – the survivors who write the history were clearly good and just, the losers deserving of their destruction.

Unless of course god has another plan for you that you just don’t know about yet.

Prosperity gospel is basically this fallacy on steroids with charismatic pastors fleecing their followers for dollars in order to prop up their “ministry”. You’ll find folks with very little giving to those who have very much, all in the name of “seeding their future” or “keeping the devil at bay”. It is honestly one of the most despicable and dishonest things a person can do to another usually vulnerable person.

It’s an obvious scam to most folks who see these mega churches operate in this way, but we should also turn that same kind of critical eye to other aspects of our life. Why do we see so much talk about the “right” kind of people getting ahead? Why do we see such demonization of the “wrong” type of people? Why do conservatives seem so ready to assume the worst or best of someone based on some surface level heuristics like “being rich” or “coming out ahead”?

Think of policies that are about means testing for programs like SNAP or Medicaid and the restrictions of them. Conservatives will shake their head and wag their finger about low income folks buying soft drinks, going on about wasting money while turning a blind eye to six figure expenditures that yield nothing that benefits the public. It isn’t that they think purchasing soft drinks is bad its that the wrong people are unjustly having a good time, which violates the Just World they believe in.

I think its because they think the world is just as it is and any attempt to analyze or change it is, to them, an attempt to disrupt the social order. This dovetails right on top of the republican agenda of top down authoritarianism from Trump to local elected officials, entrenching powers in the state to override any perceived glitches in the system.

Lets apply that same lens to someone like Donald Trump, someone who was born into immense wealth and privilege. Conservatives will readily point out his moral failings or boorish behavior, but will instead point to his business acumen, his wealth accumulation, and his ability to avoid accountability for his crimes. We have seen folks say verbatim “if he was guilty, he’d be in jail. Since he isn’t, he’s obviously innocent” or, “he won an election, thus he mustn’t have done the bad things folks allege he has done”.

What a ridiculous thing to say.

These folks don’t say these kinds of exculpatory things about Democrats or folks they disagree with; they only seem to have this Just view when it comes to their own preferred outcome or positioning. I’ve written in the past that there is very much the idea of a dual justice system for the InGroup and the OutGroup, but this seems to extend well beyond just tribal politics. It seems to shape their entire moral foundation and understanding of the world in a very important way: what is true for them isn’t objective nor is that the goal to find shared reality, rather what they can justify to themselves without breaking certain Just World Rules.

Its what drives conservative law makers to rail against the opulent spending on [checks notes] Dr. Pepper. Its what drove fascist lawmaker Steve King in 2013 to claim that kids crossing the Southern US border have “calves the size of cantaloupes” because even the children had to be demonized since they had to somehow be bad and implicated in drug trafficking to justify harsh border policy and poor treatment of migrants. This is where a lot of the anti-democratic sentiment comes from: If LGBTQ people are doing well, if women are doing well, if “the liberals” are doing well and are somehow happy, this causes a short circuit for these conservatives. Since only the just and good are well funded and successful, and these groups are decidedly not “good”, something is wrong in the world and it needs Fixing.

This Just World fallacy bleeds into almost all aspects of their life and why a prosperity gospel like figure like Trump is so appealing to these conservative folks. Even if they don’t see themselves as hateful or mean, they still cling to this idea of a certain order in the world, and they are being dutiful by supporting institutions that impose it. But their way of thinking of the world leads to bad outcomes, often outcomes that are counter to the very things they say they oppose. How many times have we seen conservatives rail against the Big Corporations, the Main Stream Media, or Woke Hollywood only to vote and act to empower big corporations, large media conglomerates, and mimic Hollywood media successes?

“No, no, no they don’t want to hurt kids, no kids deserve to suffer” they will say, shaking their head, “but we need to make sure that the ‘right’ kids are getting the ‘right’ things” as they pull the lever to take away SNAP benefits from kids. See its not that they don’t want kids to eat, they just don’t want the wrong kids to eat the wrong foods. They wouldn’t let Good Kids starve so we need to create a category of Bad Kids to justify curtailment of food access.

“I’m not racist at all, I have several black friends and I don’t see color” they say, clucking their tongue in disgust, “but its not right that my kids should feel bad by learning about slavery and Jim Crow” as they join a rally against “woke” libraries that carry historical books on the topic. Its not that they don’t like history, they just don’t want the wrong kind of history. They are very interested in Facts and Logic ™, so if there is something untoward in a history book its because of a conspiracy, not because of any kind of accurate retelling of history.

“There are only two sexes, its science because of the chromosomes” I’ve heard full adults say, “I learned that in school, didn’t you?”, not considering that maybe there is more to biology and chromosomal make up than their 7^th grade science class in the mid-80s and 90s.1 Because the world order has only been what they want it to be, any new information to the contrary must be a Soros-based conspiracy, designed to tear apart the fabric of their reality. This is all much more likely in their Just World than the mere suggestion that maybe they are simply wrong about something they believed for a long time.

This is where banning local state ordinances for civil rights, bathroom bills that control access to where trans people want to pee, mandating religious dogma in classrooms come from2. If the wrong people are doing well, then there is an order to the world that needs to be imposed to ensure things remain Just.

People aren’t turning away from religion because of the problems with the church, it’s a conspiracy.

Trans people don’t just want to use the bathroom, they want to assault children, it’s a conspiracy.3

Local cities shouldn’t have control over their civil rights laws, it’s a conspiracy.4

So for these conservatives, if the world is just and the “bad guys” are winning in their view, then there must be something that needs to right the tilting ship, restore the proper order. For them, if the bad guys are winning, then they obviously are cheating or conspiring in some way. From those kids on SNAP benefits to those dying in US made bombs in the Middle East.

Enter authoritarianism, Christian Nationalism, and restrictive social programs. Often its religion with the aforementioned “everything happens for a reason” with appeals to divine retribution for stepping out of line overlaying an authoritarian bent on the social order.

The Just World belief of these conservatives leads to bad outcomes and bad governance. It’s a rejection of the agency of other people in favor of myth-making and wishful thinking so they don’t have to examine WHY someone is a “winner” or a “loser”. If someone is losing its because they deserve it, if there are winners, then its just the right way to go.

The reality that many “winners” are such at the expense of others is just too scary for them.

Easier to call everyone else a “loser” than to examine if they are one themselves, and they will literally burn the world down to avoid doing it.