What Does Iran’s Victory Mean for the Region?

When Sami Hamdi came to the studio last week, it seemed like the beginning of the end of America’s omnishambles of a war with Iran. The memorandum of understanding was intended as a step toward a negotiated deal. It amounted to a capitulation, a humiliated settlement by a chastened power.

If you haven’t seen the episode with Sami, do watch the full show. I think it’s one of the best we have recorded to date. In it, we covered his analysis of the depth of US failure and discussed how this new Middle East will look. Now, Iran is emboldened. The bloody nose it gave to the US, along with its willingness to strike US Arab allies and weaponise the Strait of Hormuz, forced Trump to sue for a humiliating peace.

Sami recognises, as I do, the double-edged sword that is Iran’s victory. Over the past two decades, Iran has advanced its security and strategic interests by unleashing proxies in places like Yemen and Syria. These actions have caused incalculable death and destruction. I have just returned from a trip to Syria. While there, you would be hard-pressed to find any Syrian who shows solidarity with Iran; memories of the horrific crimes of its militias remain visceral.

I think Sami is nuanced and recognises the qualitative difference between Iran’s ideological state and those of the largely cartoonic Arab regimes that buckle at any sign of Western pressure.

As the interview ends, we discuss plans to resuscitate the Hejaz railway. This project would connect Arab capitals, and I think it would be a really substantial project if it were ever realised.