Ukraine Live Q&A replay

Hey there everyone,

If you missed the Ukraine Live Q&A last night I have inserted it below.

Several subscribers have asked me what I make of the reporting of sizeable NATO air force activity in the Baltic Sea near the Russian enklave of Kaliningrad over the last few days. I’ve now read the posts by Olga Lautman and I sent the following answer to my paid subscribers:

“I think what we have seen is a show of force by NATO around Kaliningrad and as Olga has pointed out it’s likely an effort to seek to deter Russia - to avoid Russia getting a sense that there is anything but a disastrous defeat coming if they try to challenge NATO borders. Obviously, the US AF participates in these exercises due to the NATO setup that exists. What worries me the most is whether Putin actually believes that the US Commander-in-Chief, AKA Donald J. Trump, would allow US forces to participate in case Russia initiates a territorial challenge to NATO in the Baltics? As you know I’m highly sceptical that Trump would command US forces to “defend every inch of NATO territory” and that’s also likely to be Putin’s assessment. Therefore, a NATO show of force including the US AF may not deter Putin”.

As you can tell, I remain sceptical that the activities will have the desired effect. Obviously, I hope I’m wrong. The questions also tell me that I need to do a whole Q&A on precisely this issue. I hope to be able to do it before I go away on the course next week (the Commanding General of the Danish Armed Forces annual course). If I don’t succeed I will get back to it the following week.

If you missed the show last night paid subscribers can access it below.

Cheers,

Jacob