Almost half of Russians report that the state of the economy has worsened over the past three months. The share of respondents who rate the government’s economic priorities negatively is gradually rising. Although positive assessments still predominate, their share is declining slowly. Another question, included for the first time, produced a striking result: three-quarters of Russians believe that the war is worsening the state of the Russian economy, with more than half (51 percent) convinced that it is worsening it significantly.
A public opinion survey conducted for NEST during the final ten days of June indicates a deterioration in assessments of the state of the Russian economy. Compared with previous surveys, these assessments have shifted from moderately positive to neutral. When asked about the state of the economy in June, half of respondents (51 percent) still chose the response ‘so-so’. However, the shares with positive and negative assessments are now equal (22 percent each), whereas just two months earlier, the share of positive assessments was 1.5 times that of negative assessments.
Russians report a marked deterioration in the economy in recent months. When asked how the situation had changed over the past three months, almost half of respondents (49 percent, compared with 36 percent in both April and February) replied that it had ‘slightly worsened’ or ‘worsened significantly’. The share of those who reported an improvement declined from 18 percent in both February and April to 12 percent in June.
The evidence suggests that Russians assess the state of the economy primarily on the basis of information from external sources rather than on their own experience or changes in their households' financial situation. Responses to the question about how the cost of living affects respondents’ households remained unchanged compared with previous surveys. Around 30 percent selected each of the first three options – that it places a ‘severe’ or ‘moderate’ financial burden on the household, or that financial difficulties could arise if the cost of living continues to increase – while around 10 percent said that it was not a concern.
Similarly, the increase in negative assessments of the economy has been accompanied by less pronounced changes in assessments of the government’s performance, although the shift towards disapproval is nonetheless evident. Just under half of respondents continue to believe that the government’s economic policy priorities are correct, while slightly more than one-third take the opposite view. However, the share who think the government’s priorities are correct has declined slightly, while the share who do not has increased. As a result, the gap between the two positions has narrowed noticeably: whereas in April the distribution was 48 percent to 33 percent, by June it had shifted to 45 percent to 37 percent. The share of respondents who believe the government’s actions create more problems than benefits increased from 33 percent to 37 percent. Meanwhile, the share of those who take the opposite view declined from 15 percent to 12 percent.
Another important question, included for the first time, produced a striking result: three-quarters of Russians believe that the war (the questionnaire used the official term ‘special military operation’) is worsening the state of the Russian economy, with 51 percent of respondents saying that it is ‘worsening it significantly’. Only 12 percent said the war is improving the state of the economy, and just 3 percent said it is ‘improving it significantly’.
Given that more than three-quarters of Russians think that the war has had a negative effect on the economy, it is unsurprising that this view predominates across all survey groups – broken down by age and gender, occupation, education level, place of residence, and trust in different sources of information – making any discussion of those who say it has had a positive effect highly qualified. Relatively greater optimism about the war’s impact on the economy (defined as a positive assessment by at least 18 per cent of respondents, 150% of the average for the sample as a whole) is found among those who believe that the country is moving in the right direction, respondents who did not complete secondary education (18 per cent of whom say the war has had a positive effect on the economy), and those who place the greatest trust in television and the print media (19 per cent ). Even among pensioners and people of retirement age – traditionally supporters of Putin – optimism does not exceed 15 percent.
In addition, it is noteworthy that the level of optimism is markedly higher in Moscow and large cities (with populations of more than 500,000), at 15 percent, than in small towns and rural areas, where it is 10 percent.
This gap between assessments of the government’s priorities and performance, on the one hand, and of the war’s impact on the economy, on the other, can be explained in two ways. Either Russians believe that ‘we did not start it’ and therefore do not hold the government responsible for the war’s negative effect on the economy, or they understand that this is ‘Putin’s war’, that it must be distinguished from government policy, and that the government should not be held responsible for its consequences.
The nationwide survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews during the final ten days of June 2026 using a representative sample of Russia’s urban and rural population. The sample comprised 1,610 respondents aged 18 and over. The margin of error for a sample, at a 95 percent confidence level, does not exceed:
3.4 percent for indicators close to 50 percent;
2.9 percent for indicators close to 25 percent / 75 percent;
2.0 percent for indicators close to 10 percent / 90 percent;
1.5 percent for indicators close to 5 percent / 95 percent.
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